Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State7-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana8-0–AP 2
   Beat UCLA 56-6 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas A&M8-0–AP 3
   Won 49-25 at No. 20 LSU as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama7-1–AP 4
   Won 29-22 at South Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia6-1–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon7-1–AP 6
   Beat Wisconsin 21-7 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Georgia Tech8-0–AP 8
   Beat Syracuse 41-16 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Ole Miss7-1–AP 7
   Won 34-26 at No. 13 Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
9. 9Miami6-1–AP 10
   Beat Stanford 42-7 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Vanderbilt7-1–AP 9
    Beat No. 15 Missouri 17-10 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11BYU8-0–AP 11
    Won 41-27 at Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
12. 12Notre Dame5-2–AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13Texas Tech7-1▲1AP 13
    Beat Oklahoma State 42-0 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Virginia7-1▲2AP 15
    Won 17-16 at North Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Tennessee6-2▲2AP 14
    Won 56-34 at Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Louisville6-1▲3AP 16
    Beat Boston College 38-24 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Oklahoma6-2▼4AP 18
    Lost 34-26 at home to No. 8 Ole Miss as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
18. 18Cincinnati7-1▲3AP 17
    Beat Baylor 41-20 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Missouri6-2▼4AP 19
    Lost 17-10 at No. 10 Vanderbilt as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
20. 20Texas6-2▲2AP 20
    Won 45-38 at Mississippi State as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Michigan6-2▲4AP 21
    Won 31-20 at Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Utah6-2NewAP 24
    Beat Colorado 53-7 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23North Texas7-1NewAP NR
    Won 54-20 at Charlotte as a 25.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Memphis7-1NewAP 25
    Beat No. 18 South Florida 34-31 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25LSU5-3▼5AP NR
    Lost 49-25 at home to No. 3 Texas A&M as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 20

Dropping out

• South Florida (was No. 18): Lost 34-31 at Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Illinois (was No. 23): Lost 42-25 at Washington as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Arizona State (was No. 24): Lost 24-16 at home to Houston as a 7.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.