Projected AP Top 25 after week 15

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll comes out Sunday afternoon; we’ll show it next to ours.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia12-1▲5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
2. 2Michigan13-0▼1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
3. 3Washington13-0▼1
   Off this week · Was No. 2
4. 4Florida State13-0–
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Oregon11-2▲3
   Off this week · Was No. 8
6. 6Ohio State11-1▲1
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Texas12-1▼4
   Off this week · Was No. 3
8. 8Alabama12-1▼3
   Off this week · Was No. 5
9. 9Missouri10-2–
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Penn State10-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Ole Miss10-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 11
12. 12Oklahoma10-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13LSU9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 13
14. 14Arizona9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15Louisville10-3▲1
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Notre Dame9-3▼1
    Off this week · Was No. 15
17. 17Tulane11-2▲6
    Off this week · Was No. 23
18. 18Iowa10-3▲2
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19Oklahoma State9-4▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20Liberty13-0▼2
    Off this week · Was No. 18
21. 21Oregon State8-4–
    Off this week · Was No. 21
22. 22NC State9-3▼3
    Off this week · Was No. 19
23. 23Toledo11-2New
    Off this week · Was unranked
24. 24James Madison11-1–
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25SMU11-2▼8
    Off this week · Was No. 17

Dropping out

• Tennessee (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.