Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia11-0–AP 1
   Won 38-10 at No. 21 Tennessee as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan11-0–AP 3
   Won 31-24 at Maryland as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State11-0–AP 2
   Beat Minnesota 37-3 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State11-0–AP 5
   Beat North Alabama 58-13 at home · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington11-0–AP 4
   Won 22-20 at No. 10 Oregon State as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon10-1–AP 6
   Won 49-13 at Arizona State as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas10-1–AP 7
   Won 26-16 at Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Alabama10-1–AP 8
   Beat Chattanooga 66-10 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Louisville10-1–AP 9
   Won 38-31 at Miami as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
10. 10Missouri9-2▲1AP 10
    Beat Florida 33-31 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Penn State9-2▲1AP 11
    Beat Rutgers 27-6 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Ole Miss9-2▲1AP 12
    Beat UL Monroe 35-3 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Oklahoma9-2▲1AP 13
    Won 31-24 at BYU as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14LSU8-3▲1AP 14
    Beat Georgia State 56-14 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Oregon State8-3▼5AP 15
    Lost 22-20 at home to No. 5 Washington as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
16. 16Arizona8-3▲3AP 16
    Beat No. 16 Utah 42-18 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Tulane10-1–AP 18
    Won 24-8 at Florida Atlantic as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Notre Dame8-3▲2AP 17
    Beat Wake Forest 45-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Kansas State8-3▲4AP 19
    Won 31-27 at Kansas as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Oklahoma State8-3▲4AP 21
    Won 43-30 at Houston as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Liberty11-0▲4AP 22
    Beat Massachusetts 49-25 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Utah7-4▼6AP NR
    Lost 42-18 at No. 19 Arizona as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
23. 23Tennessee7-4▼2AP 25
    Lost 38-10 at home to No. 1 Georgia as a 8.5-point underdog · Was No. 21
24. 24Troy9-2NewAP NR
    Beat Louisiana 31-24 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25SMU9-2NewAP NR
    Won 38-34 at Memphis as a 9.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• James Madison (was No. 18): Lost 26-23 at home to App State as a 11.5-point favorite.
• North Carolina (was No. 22): Lost 31-20 at Clemson as a 7.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.