Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia9-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 14 Missouri 30-21 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan9-0–AP 2
   Beat Purdue 41-13 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State9-0–AP 3
   Won 35-16 at Rutgers as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State9-0–AP 4
   Won 24-7 at Pittsburgh as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington9-0–AP 5
   Won 52-42 at No. 24 USC as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon8-1–AP 6
   Beat California 63-19 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Alabama8-1▲1AP 8
   Beat No. 13 LSU 42-28 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Texas8-1▼1AP 7
   Beat No. 25 Kansas State 33-30 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 7
9. 9Penn State8-1–AP 9
   Won 51-15 at Maryland as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Ole Miss8-1▲1AP 10
    Beat Texas A&M 38-35 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Louisville8-1▲4AP 11
    Beat Virginia Tech 34-3 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Oregon State7-2▲4AP 12
    Won 26-19 at Colorado as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13Utah7-2▲5AP 13
    Beat Arizona State 55-3 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Tennessee7-2▲5AP 14
    Beat UConn 59-3 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
15. 15Missouri7-2▼1AP 16
    Lost 30-21 at No. 1 Georgia as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
16. 16LSU6-3▼3AP 18
    Lost 42-28 at No. 8 Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
17. 17Oklahoma7-2▼7AP 17
    Lost 27-24 at Oklahoma State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
18. 18Tulane8-1▲3AP 20
    Won 13-10 at East Carolina as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19James Madison9-0▲4AP 21
    Won 42-14 at Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Kansas7-2▲2AP 19
    Won 28-21 at Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
21. 21Notre Dame7-3▼9AP 22
    Lost 31-23 at Clemson as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
22. 22Liberty9-0NewAP 25
    Beat Louisiana Tech 56-30 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Oklahoma State7-2NewAP 15
    Beat No. 10 Oklahoma 27-24 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Toledo8-1NewAP NR
    Beat Buffalo 31-13 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Troy7-2NewAP NR
    Beat South Alabama 28-10 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Air Force (was No. 17): Lost to Army 23-3 at a neutral site as a 17.5-point favorite.
• UCLA (was No. 20): Lost 27-10 at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite.
• USC (was No. 24): Lost 52-42 at home to No. 5 Washington as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Kansas State (was No. 25): Lost 33-30 at No. 7 Texas as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.