Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.3 places on average, with 16 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia7-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan8-0–AP 2
   Won 49-0 at Michigan State as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State7-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 7 Penn State 20-12 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State7-0–AP 4
   Beat No. 16 Duke 38-20 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington7-0–AP 5
   Beat Arizona State 15-7 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma7-0–AP 6
   Beat UCF 31-29 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas6-1▲1AP 7
   Won 31-24 at Houston as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Oregon6-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Washington State 38-24 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Alabama7-1▲2AP 9
   Beat No. 17 Tennessee 34-20 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Penn State6-1▼3AP 10
    Lost 20-12 at No. 3 Ohio State as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 7
11. 11Oregon State6-1▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Utah6-1▲2AP 13
    Won 34-32 at No. 18 USC as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
13. 13Ole Miss6-1–AP 12
    Won 28-21 at Auburn as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Notre Dame6-2▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15LSU6-2▲4AP 15
    Beat Army 62-0 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Missouri7-1▲4AP 16
    Beat South Carolina 34-12 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17North Carolina6-1▼7AP 17
    Lost 31-27 at home to Virginia as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 10
18. 18Air Force7-0▲4AP 19
    Won 17-6 at Navy as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19Louisville6-1▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 21
20. 20Duke5-2▼4AP 20
    Lost 38-20 at No. 4 Florida State as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
21. 21Tulane6-1▲2AP 22
    Beat North Texas 35-28 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Liberty7-0NewAP NR
    Beat Middle Tennessee 42-35 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23James Madison7-0NewAP 25
    Won 20-9 at Marshall as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24UCLA5-2▲1AP 23
    Won 42-7 at Stanford as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Kansas State5-2NewAP NR
    Beat TCU 41-3 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Tennessee (was No. 17): Lost 34-20 at No. 11 Alabama as a 9.5-point underdog.
• USC (was No. 18): Lost 34-32 at home to No. 14 Utah as a 6.5-point favorite.
• Iowa (was No. 24): Lost 12-10 at home to Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.