Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia2-0–AP 1
   Beat Ball State 45-3 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan2-0–AP 2
   Beat UNLV 35-7 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Florida State2-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Southern Miss 66-13 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Ohio State2-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Youngstown State 35-7 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5USC3-0▲1AP 5
   Beat Stanford 56-10 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Penn State2-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Delaware 63-7 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Washington2-0▲1AP 8
   Beat Tulsa 43-10 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Texas2-0▲3AP 4
   Won 34-24 at No. 3 Alabama as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 11
9. 9Tennessee2-0–AP 11
   Beat Austin Peay 30-13 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Notre Dame3-0–AP 9
    Won 45-24 at NC State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Alabama1-1▼8AP 10
    Lost 34-24 at home to No. 11 Texas as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 3
12. 12Utah2-0–AP 12
    Won 20-13 at Baylor as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Oregon2-0–AP 13
    Won 38-30 at Texas Tech as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14LSU1-1–AP 14
    Beat Grambling 72-10 at home as a 56.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Kansas State2-0–AP 15
    Beat Troy 42-13 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Oregon State2-0–AP 16
    Beat UC Davis 55-7 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17North Carolina2-0–AP 20
    Beat App State 40-34 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Oklahoma2-0–AP 19
    Beat SMU 28-11 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Ole Miss2-0▲1AP 17
    Won 37-20 at No. 24 Tulane as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Duke2-0▲1AP 21
    Beat Lafayette 42-7 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Colorado2-0▲1AP 18
    Beat Nebraska 36-14 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Clemson1-1▲3AP NR
    Beat Charleston Southern 66-17 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Liberty2-0NewAP NR
    Beat New Mexico State 33-17 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Louisville2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Murray State 56-0 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Miami2-0NewAP 22
    Beat No. 23 Texas A&M 48-33 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Wisconsin (was No. 19): Lost 31-22 at Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 23): Lost 48-33 at Miami as a 3-point favorite.
• Tulane (was No. 24): Lost 37-20 at home to No. 20 Ole Miss as a 8.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.