Projected AP Top 25 after week 16

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll comes out Sunday afternoon; we’ll show it next to ours.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama12-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Florida State13-0–
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon12-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Baylor11-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State12-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6TCU11-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Michigan State10-2–
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Mississippi State10-2–
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Ole Miss9-3–
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Georgia Tech10-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Kansas State9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 11
12. 12Arizona10-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13Georgia9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 13
14. 14UCLA9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15Arizona State9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Missouri10-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17Wisconsin10-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18Clemson9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 18
19. 19Auburn8-4–
    Off this week · Was No. 19
20. 20Louisville9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 20
21. 21Boise State11-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 21
22. 22LSU8-4–
    Off this week · Was No. 22
23. 23Utah8-4–
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24USC8-4–
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25Marshall12-1New
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Nebraska (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.