Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Mississippi State9-0–AP 1
   Beat UT Martin 45-16 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Florida State9-0–AP 2
   Beat Virginia 34-20 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama8-1▲1AP 4
   Won 20-13 at No. 14 LSU as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Oregon9-1▲1AP 3
   Won 51-27 at No. 20 Utah as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5TCU8-1▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 9 Kansas State 41-20 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Arizona State8-1▲5AP 7
   Beat No. 8 Notre Dame 55-31 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 11
7. 7Baylor8-1▲3AP 6
   Won 48-14 at No. 16 Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 10
8. 8Ohio State8-1▲5AP 8
   Won 49-37 at No. 7 Michigan State as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 13
9. 9Ole Miss8-2▲3AP 10
   Beat Presbyterian 48-0 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Auburn7-2▼7AP 9
    Lost 41-38 at home to Texas A&M as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
11. 11Michigan State7-2▼4AP 12
    Lost 49-37 at home to No. 13 Ohio State as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 7
12. 12Nebraska8-1▲3AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 15
13. 13Georgia7-2▲4AP 16
    Won 63-31 at Kentucky as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Kansas State7-2▼5AP 13
    Lost 41-20 at No. 6 TCU as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 9
15. 15Notre Dame7-2▼7AP 15
    Lost 55-31 at No. 11 Arizona State as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 8
16. 16UCLA8-2▲2AP 14
    Won 44-30 at Washington as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Clemson7-2▲2AP 18
    Won 34-20 at Wake Forest as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18LSU7-3▼4AP 20
    Lost 20-13 at home to No. 4 Alabama as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 14
19. 19Arizona7-2▲2AP 17
    Beat Colorado 38-20 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Duke8-1▲2AP 19
    Won 27-10 at Syracuse as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Marshall9-0▲2AP 21
    Won 63-17 at Southern Miss as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Wisconsin7-2▲3AP 22
    Won 34-16 at Purdue as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Texas A&M7-3NewAP NR
    Won 41-38 at No. 3 Auburn as a 14.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Oklahoma6-3▼8AP NR
    Lost 48-14 at home to No. 10 Baylor as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 16
25. 25Colorado State9-1NewAP 23
    Beat Hawai'i 49-22 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Utah (was No. 20): Lost 51-27 at home to No. 5 Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog.
• West Virginia (was No. 24): Lost 33-16 at Texas as a 5.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.