Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State2-0–AP 1
   Beat The Citadel 37-12 at home as a 58.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama2-0–AP 3
   Beat Florida Atlantic 41-0 at home as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon2-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 7 Michigan State 46-27 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma2-0–AP 4
   Won 52-7 at Tulsa as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Auburn2-0–AP 5
   Beat San José State 59-13 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Georgia1-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas A&M2-0▲2AP 7
   Beat Lamar 73-3 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Baylor2-0▲2AP 8
   Beat Northwestern State 70-6 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9UCLA2-0▲2AP 12
   Beat Memphis 42-35 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10LSU2-0▲2AP 10
    Beat Sam Houston 56-0 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11USC2-0▲3AP 9
    Won 13-10 at No. 13 Stanford as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 14
12. 12Michigan State1-1▼5AP 13
    Lost 46-27 at No. 3 Oregon as a 11-point underdog · Was No. 7
13. 13Ole Miss2-0▲2AP 14
    Won 41-3 at Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Notre Dame2-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Michigan 31-0 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Arizona State2-0▲2AP 16
    Won 58-23 at New Mexico as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Wisconsin1-1▲2AP 18
    Beat Western Illinois 37-3 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Nebraska2-0▲2AP NR
    Beat McNeese 31-24 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Kansas State2-0▲2AP 19
    Won 32-28 at Iowa State as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Ohio State1-1▼11AP 22
    Lost 35-21 at home to Virginia Tech as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 8
20. 20Stanford1-1▼7AP 15
    Lost 13-10 at home to No. 14 USC as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 13
21. 21South Carolina1-1–AP 24
    Beat East Carolina 33-23 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22Clemson1-1▲1AP 23
    Beat South Carolina State 73-7 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23North Carolina2-0▼1AP NR
    Beat San Diego State 31-27 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
24. 24Missouri2-0–AP 20
    Won 49-24 at Toledo as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
25. 25Virginia Tech2-0NewAP 17
    Won 35-21 at No. 8 Ohio State as a 12-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Louisville (was No. 25): Beat Murray State 66-21 at home as a 37.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.