Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Mississippi State8-0–AP 1
   Beat Arkansas 17-10 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Florida State8-0–AP 2
   Won 42-31 at Louisville as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Auburn7-1▲1AP 3
   Won 35-31 at No. 7 Ole Miss as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 4
4. 4Alabama7-1▼1AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 3
5. 5Oregon8-1–AP 5
   Beat Stanford 45-16 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Notre Dame7-1–AP 8
   Beat Navy 49-39 at a neutral site as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Michigan State7-1▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8TCU7-1▲2AP 6
   Won 31-30 at No. 20 West Virginia as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Kansas State7-1▲2AP 9
   Beat Oklahoma State 48-14 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Baylor7-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Kansas 60-14 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Ole Miss7-2▼4AP 12
    Lost 35-31 at home to No. 4 Auburn as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 7
12. 12Ohio State7-1▲1AP 13
    Beat Illinois 55-14 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Arizona State7-1▲2AP 11
    Beat No. 18 Utah 19-16 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Nebraska8-1▲3AP 15
    Beat Purdue 35-14 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15LSU7-2▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Oklahoma6-2▲3AP 16
    Won 59-14 at Iowa State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17UCLA7-2▲8AP 18
    Beat No. 14 Arizona 17-7 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
18. 18Georgia6-2▼9AP 17
    Lost to Florida 38-20 at a neutral site as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 9
19. 19Clemson6-2▲3AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20Marshall8-0▲3AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 23
21. 21Duke7-1▲3AP 22
    Won 51-48 at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
22. 22Arizona6-2▼8AP 21
    Lost 17-7 at No. 25 UCLA as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
23. 23Utah6-2▼5AP 20
    Lost 19-16 at No. 15 Arizona State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
24. 24West Virginia6-3▼4AP 24
    Lost 31-30 at home to No. 10 TCU as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 20
25. 25Georgia Tech7-2NewAP NR
    Beat Virginia 35-10 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• East Carolina (was No. 21): Lost 20-10 at Temple as a 7-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.