Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Mississippi State7-0–AP 1
   Won 45-31 at Kentucky as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Florida State7-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama7-1▲1AP 3
   Won 34-20 at Tennessee as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Auburn6-1▲1AP 4
   Beat South Carolina 42-35 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Oregon7-1▲1AP 5
   Won 59-41 at California as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Notre Dame6-1▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan State7-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Michigan 35-11 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Georgia6-1▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9TCU6-1▲1AP 10
   Beat Texas Tech 82-27 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Kansas State6-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Texas 23-0 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Baylor6-1▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Ohio State6-1▲1AP 13
    Won 31-24 at Penn State as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Ole Miss7-1▼10AP 7
    Lost 10-7 at No. 24 LSU as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 3
14. 14Arizona State6-1–AP 15
    Won 24-10 at Washington as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Arizona6-1–AP 14
    Won 59-37 at Washington State as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Nebraska7-1–AP 17
    Beat Rutgers 42-24 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Oklahoma5-2–AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18East Carolina6-1–AP 21
    Beat UConn 31-21 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Utah6-1–AP 18
    Beat No. 20 USC 24-21 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20LSU7-2▲4AP 16
    Beat No. 3 Ole Miss 10-7 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 24
21. 21Clemson6-2–AP 22
    Beat Syracuse 16-6 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22West Virginia6-2–AP 20
    Won 34-10 at Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 22
23. 23Marshall8-0–AP 23
    Beat Florida Atlantic 35-16 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
24. 24UCLA6-2▲1AP 25
    Won 40-37 at Colorado as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Georgia Tech6-2NewAP NR
    Won 56-28 at Pittsburgh as a 4-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• USC (was No. 20): Lost 24-21 at No. 19 Utah as a 1-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.