Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State1-0–AP 1
   Beat Oklahoma State 37-31 at a neutral site as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama1-0–AP 2
   Beat West Virginia 33-23 at a neutral site as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon1-0–AP 3
   Beat South Dakota 62-13 at home as a 51-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma1-0–AP 4
   Beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State1-0–AP 8
   Beat Navy 34-17 at a neutral site as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Auburn1-0–AP 5
   Beat Arkansas 45-21 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7UCLA1-0–AP 11
   Won 28-20 at Virginia as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Michigan State1-0–AP 7
   Beat Jacksonville State 45-7 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Baylor1-0▲1AP 10
   Beat SMU 45-0 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Georgia1-0▲2AP 6
    Beat No. 16 Clemson 45-21 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Stanford1-0–AP 13
    Beat UC Davis 45-0 at home as a 47-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12LSU1-0▲1AP 12
    Beat No. 14 Wisconsin 28-24 at a neutral site as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13USC1-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Fresno State 52-13 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Notre Dame1-0▲3AP 16
    Beat Rice 48-17 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Texas A&M1-0▲6AP 9
    Won 52-28 at No. 9 South Carolina as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 21
16. 16Ole Miss1-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Boise State 35-13 at a neutral site as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Arizona State1-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Weber State 45-14 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Kansas State1-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Stephen F. Austin 55-16 at home as a 43-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Nebraska1-0▲3AP 19
    Beat Florida Atlantic 55-7 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20South Carolina0-1▼11AP 21
    Lost 52-28 at home to No. 21 Texas A&M as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
21. 21Wisconsin0-1▼7AP 18
    Lost to No. 13 LSU 28-24 at a neutral site as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 14
22. 22North Carolina1-0▲1AP 22
    Beat Liberty 56-29 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Missouri1-0▲1AP 24
    Beat South Dakota State 38-18 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24TCU1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Samford 48-14 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Mississippi State1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Southern Miss 49-0 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Clemson (was No. 16): Lost 45-21 at No. 12 Georgia as a 9.5-point underdog.
• Washington (was No. 25): Won 17-16 at Hawai'i as a 17.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.