Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Mississippi State6-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Florida State7-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 5 Notre Dame 31-27 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ole Miss7-0–AP 3
   Beat Tennessee 34-3 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama6-1▲3AP 4
   Beat No. 21 Texas A&M 59-0 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 7
5. 5Auburn5-1▲1AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
6. 6Michigan State6-1▲2AP 8
   Won 56-17 at Indiana as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Oregon6-1▲2AP 6
   Beat Washington 45-20 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Notre Dame6-1▼3AP 7
   Lost 31-27 at No. 2 Florida State as a 13.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
9. 9Georgia6-1▲1AP 9
   Won 45-32 at Arkansas as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10TCU5-1▲2AP 10
    Beat No. 15 Oklahoma State 42-9 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Kansas State5-1▲3AP 11
    Won 31-30 at No. 11 Oklahoma as a 12-point underdog · Was No. 14
12. 12Ohio State5-1▲1AP 13
    Beat Rutgers 56-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Arizona State5-1▲4AP 14
    Beat No. 23 Stanford 26-10 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
14. 14Baylor6-1▼10AP 12
    Lost 41-27 at West Virginia as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
15. 15Arizona5-1▲1AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Oklahoma5-2▼5AP 17
    Lost 31-30 at home to No. 14 Kansas State as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 11
17. 17Nebraska6-1▲2AP 16
    Won 38-17 at Northwestern as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18East Carolina5-1–AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
19. 19Utah5-1▲1AP 19
    Won 29-23 at Oregon State as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
20. 20USC5-2▲2AP 20
    Beat Colorado 56-28 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Marshall7-0▲4AP 23
    Won 45-13 at Florida International as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Clemson5-2▲2AP 21
    Won 17-13 at Boston College as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23West Virginia5-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 4 Baylor 41-27 at home as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Oklahoma State5-2▼9AP NR
    Lost 42-9 at No. 12 TCU as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 15
25. 25LSU6-2NewAP 24
    Beat Kentucky 41-3 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Texas A&M (was No. 21): Lost 59-0 at No. 7 Alabama as a 12-point underdog.
• Stanford (was No. 23): Lost 26-10 at No. 17 Arizona State as a 4.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.