Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State12-0–AP 2
   Beat Florida 24-19 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama11-1–AP 1
   Beat No. 15 Auburn 55-44 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon11-1–AP 3
   Won 47-19 at Oregon State as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Baylor10-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Texas Tech 48-46 at a neutral site as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5TCU10-1▲1AP 4
   Won 48-10 at Texas as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Ohio State11-1▲1AP 6
   Beat Michigan 42-28 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan State10-2▲3AP 7
   Won 34-10 at Penn State as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8Arizona10-2▲4AP 8
   Beat No. 13 Arizona State 42-35 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
9. 9Kansas State9-2▲2AP 9
   Beat Kansas 51-13 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Georgia Tech10-2▲6AP 12
    Won 30-24 at No. 8 Georgia as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
11. 11Wisconsin10-2▲3AP 11
    Beat No. 22 Minnesota 34-24 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Ole Miss9-3▲6AP 13
    Beat No. 4 Mississippi State 31-17 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
13. 13Mississippi State10-2▼9AP 10
    Lost 31-17 at No. 18 Ole Miss as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
14. 14Georgia9-3▼6AP 15
    Lost 30-24 at home to No. 16 Georgia Tech as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
15. 15Missouri10-2▲2AP 14
    Beat Arkansas 21-14 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
16. 16Auburn8-4▼1AP 20
    Lost 55-44 at No. 2 Alabama as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 15
17. 17Arizona State9-3▼4AP 17
    Lost 42-35 at No. 12 Arizona as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
18. 18Oklahoma8-3▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19UCLA9-3▼10AP 16
    Lost 31-10 at home to Stanford as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
20. 20Clemson9-3▲3AP 19
    Beat South Carolina 35-17 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Boise State10-2▲4AP 22
    Beat Utah State 50-19 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Louisville9-3▲2AP 21
    Beat Kentucky 44-40 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Stanford7-5NewAP NR
    Won 31-10 at No. 9 UCLA as a 4.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Memphis9-3NewAP NR
    Beat UConn 41-10 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25USC8-4NewAP NR
    Beat Notre Dame 49-14 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Marshall (was No. 19): Lost 67-66 at home to Western Kentucky as a 23-point favorite.
• Colorado State (was No. 21): Lost 27-24 at Air Force as a 5-point favorite.
• Minnesota (was No. 22): Lost 34-24 at No. 14 Wisconsin as a 12.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.