Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State4-0–AP 1
   Won 56-41 at NC State as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oregon4-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama4-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma4-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Auburn4-0–AP 5
   Beat Louisiana Tech 45-17 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas A&M5-0–AP 6
   Beat Arkansas 35-28 at a neutral site as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Baylor4-0–AP 7
   Won 49-28 at Iowa State as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Notre Dame4-0–AP 9
   Beat Syracuse 31-15 at a neutral site as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Michigan State3-1–AP 10
   Beat Wyoming 56-14 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10UCLA4-0▲1AP 8
    Won 62-27 at No. 15 Arizona State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Ole Miss4-0▼1AP 11
    Beat Memphis 24-3 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 10
12. 12Georgia3-1–AP 13
    Beat Tennessee 35-32 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Mississippi State4-0▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Stanford3-1▲2AP 14
    Won 20-13 at Washington as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15LSU4-1▲2AP 15
    Beat New Mexico State 63-7 at home as a 43-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16USC3-1▲2AP 16
    Beat Oregon State 35-10 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Wisconsin3-1▲2AP 17
    Beat South Florida 27-10 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Nebraska5-0▲3AP 19
    Beat Illinois 45-14 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19BYU4-0▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20Ohio State3-1▲2AP 20
    Beat Cincinnati 50-28 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21South Carolina3-2▼8AP NR
    Lost 21-20 at home to Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
22. 22Oklahoma State3-1▲2AP 21
    Beat Texas Tech 45-35 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Kansas State3-1▲2AP 23
    Beat UTEP 58-28 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24East Carolina3-1▼1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
25. 25TCU3-0NewAP 25
    Won 56-0 at SMU as a 31-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arizona State (was No. 15): Lost 62-27 at home to No. 11 UCLA as a 3-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.