Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State11-0–AP 1
   Beat Boston College 20-17 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama10-1–AP 2
   Beat Western Carolina 48-14 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon10-1–AP 3
   Beat Colorado 44-10 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Mississippi State10-1–AP 4
   Beat Vanderbilt 51-0 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5TCU9-1–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Baylor9-1–AP 5
   Beat Oklahoma State 49-28 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Ohio State10-1–AP 7
   Beat Indiana 42-27 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Georgia9-2▲1AP 8
   Beat Charleston Southern 55-9 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Michigan State9-2▲1AP 10
   Beat Rutgers 45-3 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10UCLA9-2▲1AP 9
    Beat No. 24 USC 38-20 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Kansas State8-2▲1AP 11
    Won 26-20 at West Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
12. 12Arizona State9-2▲1AP 13
    Beat Washington State 52-31 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Arizona9-2▲2AP 12
    Won 42-10 at No. 20 Utah as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
14. 14Wisconsin9-2–AP 14
    Won 26-24 at Iowa as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Auburn8-3▲1AP 15
    Beat Samford 31-7 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Georgia Tech9-2▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 17
17. 17Marshall11-0▲1AP 19
    Won 23-18 at UAB as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Missouri9-2▲1AP 17
    Won 29-21 at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 19
19. 19Colorado State10-1▲3AP 21
    Beat New Mexico 58-20 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Ole Miss8-3▼12AP 18
    Lost 30-0 at Arkansas as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 8
21. 21Oklahoma8-3▲2AP 20
    Beat Kansas 44-7 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Arkansas6-5NewAP NR
    Beat No. 8 Ole Miss 30-0 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Boise State9-2NewAP 25
    Won 63-14 at Wyoming as a 16-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Clemson8-3NewAP 23
    Beat Georgia State 28-0 at home as a 40-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Minnesota8-3NewAP 22
    Won 28-24 at No. 21 Nebraska as a 10-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Utah (was No. 20): Lost 42-10 at home to No. 15 Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Nebraska (was No. 21): Lost 28-24 at home to Minnesota as a 10-point favorite.
• USC (was No. 24): Lost 38-20 at No. 11 UCLA as a 3-point underdog.
• Duke (was No. 25): Lost 45-20 at home to North Carolina as a 6-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.