Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 20 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.4 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State3-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 22 Clemson 23-17 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oregon4-0–AP 2
   Won 38-31 at Washington State as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama4-0–AP 3
   Beat Florida 42-21 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma4-0–AP 4
   Won 45-33 at West Virginia as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Auburn3-0–AP 5
   Won 20-14 at No. 20 Kansas State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas A&M4-0–AP 6
   Won 58-6 at SMU as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Baylor3-0–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Notre Dame3-0▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Michigan State2-1▲2AP 9
   Beat Eastern Michigan 73-14 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Ole Miss3-0–AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Georgia2-1▲2AP 12
    Beat Troy 66-0 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12UCLA3-0–AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13South Carolina3-1▲1AP 13
    Won 48-34 at Vanderbilt as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Arizona State3-0▲1AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Stanford2-1▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Mississippi State4-0NewAP 14
    Won 34-29 at No. 8 LSU as a 7-point underdog · Was unranked
17. 17USC2-1–AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18LSU3-1▼10AP 17
    Lost 34-29 at home to Mississippi State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 8
19. 19Wisconsin2-1–AP 19
    Beat Bowling Green 68-17 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20BYU4-0▲1AP 20
    Beat Virginia 41-33 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Marshall4-0NewAP NR
    Won 48-17 at Akron as a 12.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Georgia Tech4-0NewAP NR
    Won 27-24 at Virginia Tech as a 6-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23TCU2-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked
24. 24Arkansas3-1NewAP NR
    Beat Northern Illinois 52-14 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Duke4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Tulane 47-13 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Missouri (was No. 18): Lost 31-27 at home to Indiana as a 16-point favorite.
• Kansas State (was No. 20): Lost 20-14 at home to No. 5 Auburn as a 6.5-point underdog.
• Clemson (was No. 22): Lost 23-17 at No. 1 Florida State as a 20.5-point underdog.
• Ohio State (was No. 23): Off this week.
• Nebraska (was No. 24): Beat Miami 41-31 at home as a 8-point favorite.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.