Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State6-0–AP 2
   Won 38-20 at Syracuse as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ole Miss6-0▲1AP 3
   Won 35-20 at No. 14 Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 3
3. 3Mississippi State6-0▲1AP 1
   Beat No. 2 Auburn 38-23 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 4
4. 4Baylor6-0▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 9 TCU 61-58 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Notre Dame6-0▲1AP 5
   Beat North Carolina 50-43 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Alabama5-1▲1AP 7
   Won 14-13 at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Michigan State5-1▲1AP 8
   Won 45-31 at Purdue as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Auburn5-1▼6AP 6
   Lost 38-23 at No. 4 Mississippi State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 2
9. 9Oregon5-1▲3AP 9
   Won 42-30 at No. 18 UCLA as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Oklahoma5-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Texas 31-26 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Georgia5-1▲2AP 10
    Won 34-0 at No. 23 Missouri as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12TCU4-1▼3AP 12
    Lost 61-58 at No. 5 Baylor as a 11-point underdog · Was No. 9
13. 13Ohio State4-1▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14Oklahoma State5-1▲2AP 15
    Won 27-20 at Kansas as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Kansas State4-1▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16East Carolina5-1▲3AP 18
    Won 28-17 at South Florida as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Texas A&M5-2▼3AP 21
    Lost 35-20 at home to No. 3 Ole Miss as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 14
18. 18Arizona5-1▼8AP 16
    Lost 28-26 at home to USC as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
19. 19Arizona State4-1▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20Nebraska5-1▲1AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 21
21. 21Marshall6-0NewAP 25
    Beat Middle Tennessee 49-24 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Stanford4-2▲3AP 23
    Beat Washington State 34-17 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23USC4-2NewAP 22
    Won 28-26 at No. 10 Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Utah4-1–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25UCLA4-2▼7AP NR
    Lost 42-30 at home to No. 12 Oregon as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 18

Dropping out

• Georgia Tech (was No. 22): Lost 31-25 at home to Duke as a 6-point favorite.
• Missouri (was No. 23): Lost 34-0 at home to No. 13 Georgia as a 1.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.