Projected AP Top 25 after week 15

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama12-1–AP 1
   Beat No. 14 Missouri 42-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Florida State13-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 12 Georgia Tech 37-35 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon12-1–AP 3
   Beat No. 8 Arizona 51-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
4. 4TCU11-1–AP 6
   Beat Iowa State 55-3 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Baylor11-1–AP 4
   Beat No. 9 Kansas State 38-27 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State12-1–AP 5
   Beat No. 11 Wisconsin 59-0 at a neutral site · Was No. 6
7. 7Michigan State10-2–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Mississippi State10-2▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Ole Miss9-3▲4AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 13
10. 10Kansas State9-3▼1AP 11
    Lost 38-27 at No. 5 Baylor as a 9-point underdog · Was No. 9
11. 11Arizona10-3▼3AP 12
    Lost to No. 3 Oregon 51-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 8
12. 12Georgia Tech10-3–AP 10
    Lost to No. 2 Florida State 37-35 at a neutral site · Was No. 12
13. 13Georgia9-3▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14UCLA9-3▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Arizona State9-3▲2AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16Wisconsin10-3▼5AP 17
    Lost to No. 6 Ohio State 59-0 at a neutral site · Was No. 11
17. 17Clemson9-3▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Missouri10-3▼4AP 16
    Lost to No. 1 Alabama 42-13 at a neutral site · Was No. 14
19. 19Auburn8-4▲1AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20Boise State11-2▲2AP 21
    Beat Fresno State 28-14 at a neutral site · Was No. 22
21. 21Louisville9-3–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 21
22. 22LSU8-4▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Marshall12-1NewAP NR
    Beat Louisiana Tech 26-23 at a neutral site · Was unranked
24. 24Utah8-4–AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25Nebraska9-3–AP 25
    Off this week · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Oklahoma (was No. 18): Lost 38-35 at home to Oklahoma State as a 19.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.