Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State2-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Oregon3-0–AP 2
   Beat Wyoming 48-14 at home as a 43-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Alabama3-0–AP 3
   Beat Southern Miss 52-12 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oklahoma3-0–AP 4
   Beat Tennessee 34-10 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Auburn2-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas A&M3-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Rice 38-10 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Baylor3-0▲1AP 7
   Won 63-21 at Buffalo as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8LSU3-0▲2AP 8
   Beat UL Monroe 31-0 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Notre Dame3-0▲2AP 9
   Beat Purdue 30-14 at a neutral site as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10UCLA3-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Texas 20-17 at a neutral site as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Ole Miss3-0▲3AP 10
    Beat Louisiana 56-15 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Michigan State1-1▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Stanford2-1▲2AP 16
    Beat Army 35-0 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Arizona State3-0▲2AP 15
    Won 38-24 at Colorado as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Georgia1-1▼9AP 13
    Lost 38-35 at No. 24 South Carolina as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Wisconsin1-1▲2AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17South Carolina2-1▲7AP 14
    Beat No. 6 Georgia 38-35 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 24
18. 18Missouri3-0▲2AP 18
    Beat UCF 38-10 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Kansas State2-0–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 19
20. 20USC2-1▼11AP 17
    Lost 37-31 at Boston College as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 9
21. 21Ohio State2-1▲1AP 23
    Beat Kent State 66-0 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Mississippi State3-0NewAP NR
    Won 35-3 at South Alabama as a 13-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23TCU2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Minnesota 30-7 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Marshall3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Ohio 44-14 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Boston College2-1NewAP NR
    Beat No. 9 USC 37-31 at home as a 20-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Virginia Tech (was No. 17): Lost 28-21 at home to East Carolina as a 11.5-point favorite.
• Louisville (was No. 21): Lost 23-21 at Virginia as a 10-point favorite.
• Clemson (was No. 23): Off this week.
• BYU (was No. 25): Beat Houston 33-25 at home as a 14-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.