Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 2.4 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State5-0–AP 1
   Beat Wake Forest 43-3 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Auburn5-0▲3AP 2
   Beat No. 15 LSU 41-7 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 5
3. 3Baylor5-0▲4AP 5
   Won 28-7 at Texas as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 7
4. 4Notre Dame5-0▲5AP 6
   Beat No. 14 Stanford 17-14 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
5. 5Ole Miss5-0▲6AP 3
   Beat No. 3 Alabama 23-17 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
6. 6Mississippi State5-0▲6AP 4
   Beat No. 6 Texas A&M 48-31 at home as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 12
7. 7Michigan State4-1▲3AP 8
   Beat No. 19 Nebraska 27-22 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8Alabama4-1▼5AP 7
   Lost 23-17 at No. 11 Ole Miss as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
9. 9Georgia4-1▲4AP 13
   Beat Vanderbilt 44-17 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
10. 10Oregon4-1▼8AP 12
    Lost 31-24 at home to Arizona as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
11. 11Oklahoma4-1▼7AP 11
    Lost 37-33 at No. 25 TCU as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 4
12. 12Texas A&M5-1▼6AP 14
    Lost 48-31 at No. 12 Mississippi State as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 6
13. 13UCLA4-1▼5AP 18
    Lost 30-28 at home to Utah as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
14. 14Ohio State4-1▲6AP 15
    Won 52-24 at Maryland as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
15. 15TCU4-0▲10AP 9
    Beat No. 4 Oklahoma 37-33 at home as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 25
16. 16Stanford3-2▼2AP 25
    Lost 17-14 at No. 9 Notre Dame as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
17. 17Oklahoma State4-1▲4AP 16
    Beat Iowa State 37-20 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Arizona5-0NewAP 10
    Won 31-24 at No. 2 Oregon as a 22.5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19East Carolina4-1▲3AP 19
    Beat SMU 45-24 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Kansas State4-1▲3AP 17
    Beat Texas Tech 45-13 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21LSU4-2▼6AP NR
    Lost 41-7 at No. 5 Auburn as a 9-point underdog · Was No. 15
22. 22Missouri4-1▲2AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 24
23. 23Marshall5-0NewAP NR
    Won 56-14 at Old Dominion as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Nebraska5-1▼5AP 21
    Lost 27-22 at No. 10 Michigan State as a 8-point underdog · Was No. 19
25. 25Utah4-1NewAP 24
    Won 30-28 at No. 8 UCLA as a 12.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• USC (was No. 16): Lost 38-34 at home to Arizona State as a 10.5-point favorite.
• Wisconsin (was No. 17): Lost 20-14 at Northwestern as a 9.5-point favorite.
• BYU (was No. 18): Lost 35-20 at home to Utah State as a 21-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.