Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Florida State10-0▲1AP 1
   Won 30-26 at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
2. 2Alabama9-1▲2AP 2
   Beat No. 1 Mississippi State 25-20 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
3. 3Oregon9-1–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4TCU9-1▲1AP 5
   Won 34-30 at Kansas as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Mississippi State9-1▼4AP 4
   Lost 25-20 at No. 4 Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 1
6. 6Baylor8-1–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Ohio State9-1▲1AP 7
   Won 31-24 at Minnesota as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Ole Miss8-2▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Michigan State8-2▲3AP 10
   Won 37-15 at Maryland as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Georgia8-2▲6AP 9
    Beat No. 9 Auburn 34-7 at home as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 16
11. 11Kansas State7-2▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12UCLA8-2▲2AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13Arizona8-2▲4AP 15
    Beat Washington 27-26 at home as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Wisconsin8-2▲8AP 14
    Beat No. 11 Nebraska 59-24 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 22
15. 15Arizona State8-2▼8AP 13
    Lost 35-27 at Oregon State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
16. 16Auburn7-3▼7AP 16
    Lost 34-7 at No. 16 Georgia as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 9
17. 17Marshall10-0▲4AP 18
    Beat Rice 41-14 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Georgia Tech9-2▲6AP 17
    Beat No. 18 Clemson 28-6 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
19. 19Nebraska8-2▼8AP 21
    Lost 59-24 at No. 22 Wisconsin as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 11
20. 20Colorado State9-1▲3AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
21. 21Utah7-3▲4AP 20
    Won 20-17 at Stanford as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 25
22. 22Notre Dame7-3▼7AP NR
    Lost 43-40 at home to Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
23. 23Boise State8-2NewAP NR
    Beat San Diego State 38-29 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Missouri8-2NewAP 19
    Won 34-27 at Texas A&M as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Oklahoma7-3NewAP 23
    Won 42-30 at Texas Tech as a 12.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Clemson (was No. 18): Lost 28-6 at No. 24 Georgia Tech as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Duke (was No. 19): Lost 17-16 at home to Virginia Tech as a 7-point favorite.
• LSU (was No. 20): Lost 17-0 at Arkansas as a 1.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.