Projected AP Top 25 after week 9
Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 9 exactly right.
- Won 38-35 at North Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
Miami holds No. 1 in our projection, but this week was a scare. The Hurricanes won 38-35 at North Carolina as a 13.5-point favorite, the kind of close call that can cost a top team some votes without costing it the top spot. At 8-0 with an 8-game win streak, they keep their place. A week earlier they beat Pittsburgh 52-23, and they also won 41-13 at Clemson. Our score-based rating has them No. 4 in FBS.
- Beat No. 17 Florida 27-8 at a neutral site as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
Georgia moves from No. 3 to No. 2 after handling No. 17 Florida 27-8 at a neutral site as an 11.5-point favorite. Holding the Gators to 8 points is the kind of result voters notice, and it came the same week a team ranked ahead of Georgia lost. The Bulldogs are 7-1, with a 20-17 win at No. 6 Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog and the lone loss 27-24 at home to Auburn as a 19.5-point favorite. Our rating has them No. 6 in FBS.
- Beat Minnesota 23-16 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
Indiana climbs from No. 4 to No. 3, though not because of how it played. A 23-16 home win over Minnesota as a 20.5-point favorite was far tighter than expected, following a 13-6 win at Michigan the week before. Voters move the Hoosiers up because a team ahead of them lost, and an 8-1 record with the only loss 19-15 to No. 4 Ohio State still reads well. Our rating is less sold, at No. 12 in FBS.
- Beat Navy 35-13 at a neutral site as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
Notre Dame moves up from No. 5 to No. 4 after a 35-13 win over Navy at a neutral site. The Fighting Irish were 30.5-point favorites and didn't cover, which voters rarely punish. The lone loss, 28-24 at No. 8 BYU as a 10.5-point favorite, is what keeps them out of the top 3. At 7-1, our score-based rating has Notre Dame No. 2 in FBS, ahead of where voters have them.
- Won 49-25 at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 6
Utah keeps climbing, from No. 6 to No. 5, after a 49-25 win at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite. That is the most convincing road result of the season for the Utes, who are 8-0 on an 8-game streak. A week earlier they beat No. 14 Houston 21-13, and a ranked win plus an unbeaten record is a strong combination with voters. Our rating puts them No. 9 in FBS.
- Beat Nevada 27-0 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
UCLA moves from No. 7 to No. 6 after shutting out Nevada 27-0 at home as a 22.5-point favorite. The Bruins are 8-0 with an 8-game streak, and the defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in 3 straight games. Their best win is still 17-15 at No. 13 Oregon as a 10-point underdog. Our rating has UCLA No. 10 in FBS, a few spots below where we project it.
- Beat Arizona State 27-20 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
BYU edges up from No. 8 to No. 7 after a 27-20 home win over Arizona State, closer than the 17.5-point spread suggested. The Cougars have bounced back from the 39-31 loss at UCF as a 7.5-point favorite, and they still own the 28-24 upset of No. 2 Notre Dame. At 7-1 the record carries them, since our rating ranks them only No. 24 in FBS.
- Off this week · Was No. 9
Kentucky had the week off and moves from No. 9 to No. 8 as a team above it lost. The Wildcats are 7-1 with 6 straight wins, most recently 34-17 over Vanderbilt. The run is built on upsets: 31-21 at No. 9 Texas A&M as a 16.5-point underdog, 35-34 over No. 10 LSU and 21-13 at Oklahoma. Our rating still has them only No. 25 in FBS, so the climb rests on results, not margins.
- Beat Mississippi State 31-3 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
Texas moves from No. 11 to No. 9 after a 31-3 home win over Mississippi State as a 19.5-point favorite, extending a 2-game win streak that began with a 34-27 win over No. 7 Ole Miss. The 2 losses, both 27-24, to Oklahoma and Florida keep the Longhorns from climbing higher, but the 24-23 win over No. 1 Ohio State in week 2 still carries weight. Our rating has Texas No. 7 in FBS.
- Off this week · Was No. 10
Alabama was off and holds at No. 10. The last game for the Crimson Tide was a 31-20 home win over Texas A&M, which followed back-to-back losses: 26-10 at No. 14 Tennessee and 20-17 at home to No. 2 Georgia. At 6-2, voters have little reason to move them on an idle week. Our score-based rating thinks they are better than that, at No. 3 in FBS.
- Beat Auburn 45-15 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
Ole Miss moves from No. 12 to No. 11 after a 45-15 home win over Auburn as a 10.5-point favorite. It's a solid answer to the 34-27 loss at No. 19 Texas the week before. The Rebels own wins over No. 13 Missouri, 31-3, and No. 7 LSU, 32-24, and the other loss was 52-28 at Florida. At 6-2, our rating has them No. 8 in FBS, a few spots better than voters.
- Beat No. 22 Arizona 34-26 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 13
Texas Tech moves from No. 13 to No. 12 after beating No. 22 Arizona 34-26 at home as a 4-point favorite. It's the best win for the Red Raiders since a 28-26 win over No. 22 Houston in week 3, and it steadies them after the 37-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 10.5-point favorite. At 7-1, our rating is cooler on them, at No. 19 in FBS.
- Beat Virginia 51-7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
Wake Forest moves from No. 14 to No. 13 after a 51-7 home rout of Virginia as a 13.5-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have won 5 straight, and their best win is still 30-27 at No. 16 Louisville as an 11.5-point underdog. The only loss came 33-20 at home to No. 5 Miami. Our rating has them No. 11 in FBS, close to where we project them.
- Lost 30-18 at USC as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
Ohio State takes the biggest fall in our projection, from No. 2 to No. 14, after a 30-18 loss at USC as a 6.5-point favorite. USC was unranked, and losing to an unranked team by 12 as a favorite is exactly what voters punish. The Buckeyes are now 6-2, though the wins still include 19-15 at No. 5 Indiana and 31-14 at No. 14 Iowa, and the other loss was 24-23 at No. 4 Texas. Our rating has them No. 5 in FBS, so the drop may be steeper than the team deserves.
- Off this week · Was No. 15
LSU was off and holds at No. 15. The Tigers last won 38-17 at Auburn, following a 31-0 shutout of No. 16 Mississippi State. Both losses were close and on the road, 35-34 at Kentucky and 32-24 at No. 8 Ole Miss. At 6-2 the poll keeps them in the middle of the pack, while our score-based rating has LSU No. 1 in all of FBS.
- Off this week · Was No. 16
Tennessee was off and holds at No. 16. The last game for the Volunteers was a 27-24 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite, which came a week after their best win, 26-10 over No. 6 Alabama as 7.5-point underdogs. The other loss was 20-17 at home to No. 1 Texas. At 6-2, our rating has Tennessee No. 13 in FBS, a little better than its spot.
- Off this week · Was No. 18
Houston was off and moves from No. 18 to No. 17 as teams around it lost. The last game for the Cougars was a 21-13 loss at No. 10 Utah as 6.5-point underdogs. Before that they beat No. 18 Oklahoma State 35-32 and won 35-16 at Kansas State as 2.5-point underdogs. At 6-2, our rating has them No. 14 in FBS.
- Beat No. 2 Ohio State 30-18 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked
USC jumps into our projection at No. 18 after a 30-18 home upset of No. 2 Ohio State as a 6.5-point underdog. Beating a top-2 team by 12 is the fastest way into the poll. The Trojans are 7-2, and the losses hold them back: 24-7 at Wisconsin the week before and 41-27 at home to No. 20 Oregon. Our rating has USC No. 22 in FBS, close to where we project it.
- Beat Texas State 46-45 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 21
Boise State moves from No. 21 to No. 19, though it nearly slipped. The Broncos beat Texas State 46-45 at home as 10-point favorites, stretching their win streak to 7. Their only loss is 34-27 at No. 2 Oregon in week 1 as 24.5-point underdogs. Voters reward the streak; our rating is skeptical, at No. 23 in FBS.
- Won 34-10 at Arkansas as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
Missouri moves from No. 23 to No. 20 after a 34-10 win at Arkansas as a 10.5-point favorite. The best win for the Tigers is still 45-17 over No. 8 Florida as 5.5-point underdogs, and their losses came 31-3 at No. 9 Ole Miss and 31-24 at No. 24 Mississippi State. At 6-2, our rating has them No. 18 in FBS.
- Lost to No. 3 Georgia 27-8 at a neutral site as a 11.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
Florida slips from No. 17 to No. 21 after a 27-8 loss to No. 3 Georgia at a neutral site as 11.5-point underdogs. A loss to a higher-ranked team as an underdog doesn't cost much, which is why the Gators stay ranked at 5-3. Their case rests on 2 big wins: 27-24 at No. 7 Texas and 52-28 over No. 4 Ole Miss. The losses to South Carolina, 38-19, and Missouri, 45-17, are why our rating has them only No. 37 in FBS.
- Beat Florida International 49-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked
Liberty enters our projection at No. 22 after a 49-10 home win over Florida International as a 13.5-point favorite. The Flames have won 7 straight since a 20-13 loss at James Madison in week 1, and most of those wins were comfortable, including 34-6 at Kennesaw State. With teams above them losing, a 7-1 record opens a spot. Our rating has Liberty No. 16 in FBS, higher than where we project it.
- Won 21-16 at San José State as a 15.5-point favorite · Was unranked
New Mexico enters our projection at No. 23 after a 21-16 win at San José State as a 15.5-point favorite. The Lobos have won 5 straight, including 21-16 over North Dakota State, and their only loss was 14-6 at No. 24 Oklahoma. It's a thin record of wins, and our rating has them only No. 30 in FBS, but 7-1 teams get a look when ranked teams lose.
- Beat No. 25 Wisconsin 30-0 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
Iowa enters our projection at No. 24 after a 30-0 home shutout of No. 25 Wisconsin as a 2.5-point favorite. It's a quick recovery from a 13-10 loss at Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite the week before. The best wins for the Hawkeyes are 20-19 at No. 18 Michigan and 41-24 at Washington as 3-point underdogs. At 6-2, our rating has Iowa No. 27 in FBS.
- Beat UTEP 31-7 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was unranked
North Dakota State enters our projection at No. 25 after a 31-7 home win over UTEP as a 23.5-point favorite. The Bison are 7-2, with losses at New Mexico, 21-16, and at UNLV, 13-7, and wins like 28-0 over Wyoming. It's the last spot, opened up by losses above. Our rating has them No. 28 in FBS, so this is a close call either way.
Dropping out
SMU (was No. 19): Lost 30-27 at Syracuse as a 8.5-point favorite.
Northwestern (was No. 20): Lost 34-26 at Oregon as a 4-point underdog.
Arizona (was No. 22): Lost 34-26 at No. 13 Texas Tech as a 4-point underdog.
Oklahoma State (was No. 24): Lost 51-49 at Iowa State as a 10-point favorite.
Wisconsin (was No. 25): Lost 30-0 at Iowa as a 2.5-point underdog.
The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.