Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia6-0▲1AP 1
   Won 20-17 at No. 6 Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 2
2. 2Notre Dame6-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Stanford 58-7 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Miami5-0▲1AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 4
4. 4Ohio State5-1▲1AP 4
   Beat Maryland 45-16 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Indiana6-0▲2AP 5
   Won 20-17 at Nebraska as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6BYU5-0▲2AP 8
   Beat Iowa State 24-10 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Ole Miss4-1▲2AP 9
   Won 52-17 at Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Alabama5-1▼2AP 6
   Lost 20-17 at home to No. 2 Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
9. 9Texas Tech5-0▲2AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Utah5-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Kansas 41-24 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Texas4-1▼10AP 7
    Lost to Oklahoma 27-24 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
12. 12Missouri5-1▲2AP 13
    Beat Texas A&M 27-6 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Tennessee5-1▲2AP 14
    Won 24-17 at Arkansas as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Oklahoma State4-1▲4AP 18
    Beat UCF 42-28 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
15. 15Mississippi State4-1▲2AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16UCLA5-0▲5AP 12
    Won 17-15 at No. 13 Oregon as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 21
17. 17USC6-1▲2AP 19
    Won 31-23 at Penn State as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Iowa5-1▲2AP 17
    Won 41-24 at Washington as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 20
19. 19LSU4-2▼9AP 22
    Lost 35-34 at Kentucky as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20Houston5-1▲2AP 20
    Won 35-16 at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
21. 21Oregon3-2▼8AP NR
    Lost 17-15 at home to No. 21 UCLA as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 13
22. 22Kentucky5-1NewAP 15
    Beat No. 10 LSU 35-34 at home as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Boise State5-1–AP 23
    Won 38-31 at Fresno State as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
24. 24Oklahoma3-2NewAP NR
    Beat No. 1 Texas 27-24 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Wake Forest5-1NewAP 21
    Won 38-14 at NC State as a 4-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Florida (was No. 16): Lost 38-19 at home to South Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite.
• SMU (was No. 24): Off this week.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 25): Lost 21-17 at home to North Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.