Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas4-0–AP 1
   Won 20-17 at No. 14 Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia4-0–AP 2
   Beat Oklahoma 41-13 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame4-0–AP 3
   Won 49-10 at Purdue as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Indiana4-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Northwestern 29-23 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Miami4-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Central Michigan 52-3 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Ohio State3-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Illinois 42-19 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Alabama4-0▲1AP 7
   Beat South Carolina 49-18 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8LSU3-1▲2AP 11
   Beat No. 23 Texas A&M 35-6 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9BYU3-0–AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Texas Tech4-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Sam Houston 49-14 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Utah4-0▲4AP 13
    Won 31-17 at Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Florida4-0▲9AP 8
    Beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 21
13. 13Iowa4-0▲4AP 14
    Won 20-19 at No. 18 Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
14. 14Ole Miss3-1▼10AP 9
    Lost 52-28 at No. 21 Florida as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 4
15. 15Oregon3-1▲5AP 15
    Won 41-27 at No. 12 USC as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
16. 16Tennessee3-1▼2AP 17
    Lost 20-17 at home to No. 1 Texas as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
17. 17SMU3-1▲5AP 21
    Beat Missouri State 34-24 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18Mississippi State4-0▲6AP 16
    Beat No. 19 Missouri 31-24 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
19. 19USC4-1▼7AP 18
    Lost 41-27 at home to No. 20 Oregon as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
20. 20Penn State3-1▼7AP NR
    Lost 24-20 at home to Wisconsin as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
21. 21UCLA4-0NewAP 23
    Won 54-3 at Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Houston3-1▲3AP 20
    Won 42-28 at Georgia Southern as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Wake Forest3-1NewAP NR
    Won 30-27 at No. 16 Louisville as a 11.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Wisconsin3-1NewAP NR
    Won 24-20 at No. 13 Penn State as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Nebraska4-0NewAP NR
    Won 31-13 at Michigan State as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Louisville (was No. 16): Lost 30-27 at home to Wake Forest as a 11.5-point favorite.
• Michigan (was No. 18): Lost 20-19 at home to No. 17 Iowa as a 4.5-point favorite.
• Missouri (was No. 19): Lost 31-24 at No. 24 Mississippi State as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Texas A&M (was No. 23): Lost 35-6 at No. 10 LSU as a 8.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.