Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia2-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Western Kentucky 70-20 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
2. 2Texas2-0▲2AP 1
   Beat No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
3. 3Notre Dame2-0–AP 3
   Beat Rice 52-0 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Indiana2-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Howard 55-0 at home as a 57.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State1-1▼4AP 6
   Lost 24-23 at No. 4 Texas as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 1
6. 6Miami2-0▲1AP 5
   Beat Florida A&M 77-7 at home as a 59.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7LSU2-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Louisiana Tech 45-14 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Ole Miss2-0▲1AP 8
   Beat Charlotte 41-9 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Texas A&M2-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Arizona State 48-20 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Alabama2-0▲2AP 10
    Won 45-17 at Kentucky as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Texas Tech2-0▲2AP 13
    Won 35-24 at Oregon State as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12USC3-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Louisiana 49-30 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13BYU2-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Arizona 28-17 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Penn State2-0▲2AP 14
    Won 27-9 at Temple as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15SMU2-0▲2AP 16
    Beat UC Davis 56-10 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Tennessee2-0▲2AP 15
    Won 45-24 at Georgia Tech as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Oregon1-1▼11AP 21
    Lost 39-31 at Oklahoma State as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
18. 18Utah2-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Arkansas 43-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Washington2-0–AP NR
    Beat Utah State 16-14 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Houston2-0▲2AP 22
    Beat Southern 77-6 at home as a 51.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Oklahoma State1-1NewAP NR
    Beat No. 6 Oregon 39-31 at home as a 24.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Iowa2-0▼1AP 18
    Beat Iowa State 16-13 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 21
23. 23Michigan2-0NewAP 19
    Beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10 at home as a 5.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Oklahoma1-1▼13AP 24
    Lost 17-10 at Michigan as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
25. 25Missouri2-0▼2AP 20
    Won 38-21 at Kansas as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 23

Dropping out

• Louisville (was No. 24): Beat Villanova 59-13 at home as a 39.5-point favorite.
• Virginia (was No. 25): Beat Norfolk State 59-3 at home as a 47.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.