Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas3-0–AP 1
   Beat UTSA 30-6 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia3-0–AP 2
   Won 45-17 at Arkansas as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame3-0–AP 3
   Beat Michigan State 27-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Indiana3-0–AP 5
   Beat Western Kentucky 38-0 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Miami3-0–AP 6
   Won 33-20 at Wake Forest as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State2-1–AP 7
   Beat Kent State 59-3 at home as a 52.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Ole Miss3-0▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 7 LSU 32-24 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 8
8. 8Alabama3-0▲2AP 8
   Beat Florida State 50-36 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9BYU3-0▲2AP 9
   Won 41-23 at Colorado State as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10USC4-0▲2AP 12
    Won 42-35 at Rutgers as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Texas Tech3-0▲2AP 11
    Beat No. 22 Houston 28-26 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Penn State3-0▲2AP 13
    Beat Buffalo 55-13 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13LSU2-1▼6AP 10
    Lost 32-24 at No. 8 Ole Miss as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 7
14. 14Tennessee3-0▲1AP 14
    Beat Kennesaw State 42-9 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Utah3-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Utah State 33-0 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Iowa3-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Northern Iowa 55-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Michigan3-0▲2AP 18
    Beat UTEP 52-17 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Missouri3-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Troy 27-17 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Oregon2-1▲2AP 20
    Beat Portland State 84-0 at home as a 58.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Louisville2-1▲3AP 16
    Beat No. 16 SMU 41-31 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Texas A&M2-1▼12AP 23
    Lost 31-21 at home to Kentucky as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
22. 22Kentucky2-1NewAP NR
    Won 31-21 at No. 9 Texas A&M as a 16.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23UCLA3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Purdue 52-38 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Nebraska3-0NewAP NR
    Beat North Dakota 34-7 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Northwestern2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Colorado 41-7 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• SMU (was No. 16): Lost 41-31 at No. 23 Louisville as a 3-point underdog.
• Houston (was No. 22): Lost 28-26 at No. 13 Texas Tech as a 7.5-point underdog.
• Oklahoma (was No. 24): Beat New Mexico 14-6 at home as a 21.5-point favorite.
• Virginia (was No. 25): Lost to West Virginia 38-27 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.