Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State1-0–AP 1
   Beat Ball State 56-3 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oregon1-0–AP 6
   Beat Boise State 34-27 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0–AP 2
   Beat Tennessee State 63-3 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Notre Dame1-0–AP 3
   Beat Wisconsin 41-13 at a neutral site as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas1-0–AP 4
   Beat Texas State 59-7 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Indiana1-0–AP 5
   Beat North Texas 52-16 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Miami1-0–AP 7
   Won 45-6 at Stanford as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Texas A&M1-0–AP 10
   Beat Missouri State 50-0 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Ole Miss1-0–AP 9
   Beat No. 24 Louisville 41-38 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Oklahoma1-0–AP 11
    Beat UTEP 51-0 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11LSU1-0–AP 8
    Beat Clemson 51-10 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Texas Tech1-0–AP 13
    Beat Abilene Christian 33-10 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Alabama1-0–AP 12
    Beat East Carolina 48-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14USC2-0▲1AP 14
    Beat San José State 42-26 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15BYU1-0▼1AP 15
    Beat Utah Tech 63-7 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
16. 16Michigan1-0–AP NR
    Beat Western Michigan 13-12 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Washington1-0–AP 19
    Beat Washington State 24-10 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Penn State1-0–AP 16
    Beat Marshall 45-0 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Tennessee1-0▲1AP 18
    Beat Furman 56-9 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20SMU1-0▼1AP 17
    Won 27-24 at Florida State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 19
21. 21Utah1-0–AP 20
    Beat Idaho 66-14 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22Iowa1-0–AP 21
    Beat Northern Illinois 40-0 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
23. 23Houston1-0–AP 22
    Beat Oregon State 33-20 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 23
24. 24Missouri1-0▲1AP 23
    Beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 at home as a 55.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25North Dakota State2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Jacksonville State 33-7 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Louisville (was No. 24): Lost to No. 9 Ole Miss 41-38 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.