Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State6-1▲3AP 3
   Won 19-15 at No. 5 Indiana as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 4
2. 2Miami6-0▲1AP 1
   Beat Florida State 43-35 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3BYU6-0▲5AP 2
   Beat No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24 at home as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
4. 4Ole Miss5-1▲5AP 7
   Beat No. 13 Missouri 31-3 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 9
5. 5Notre Dame6-1▼3AP 4
   Lost 28-24 at No. 8 BYU as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
6. 6Texas Tech6-0▲4AP 8
   Beat Arizona State 53-25 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
7. 7Indiana6-1▼2AP 6
   Lost 19-15 at home to No. 4 Ohio State as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 5
8. 8Tennessee6-1▲6AP 11
   Beat No. 6 Alabama 26-10 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
9. 9Utah6-0▲2AP 10
   Won 27-24 at Colorado as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Georgia6-1▼9AP 5
    Lost 27-24 at home to Auburn as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
11. 11UCLA6-0▲1AP 9
    Beat Wisconsin 17-7 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Kentucky6-1▲3AP 12
    Won 21-13 at Oklahoma as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 15
13. 13Alabama5-2▼7AP 13
    Lost 26-10 at No. 14 Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
14. 14Texas4-2▼7AP 19
    Lost 27-24 at home to Florida as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15Iowa5-1▲2AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16Houston6-1▲4AP 14
    Beat No. 18 Oklahoma State 35-32 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17LSU5-2▲5AP 18
    Beat No. 16 Mississippi State 31-0 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18USC6-1▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 19
19. 19Wake Forest6-1▲2AP 17
    Won 41-7 at California as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Missouri5-2▼7AP 22
    Lost 31-3 at No. 9 Ole Miss as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 13
21. 21SMU5-1▲3AP 23
    Beat Virginia 23-13 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Boise State5-1▲1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
23. 23Auburn4-2NewAP NR
    Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia as a 19.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Northwestern5-1▲1AP 24
    Won 24-21 at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25James Madison7-0NewAP NR
    Beat Georgia State 49-22 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Mississippi State (was No. 16): Lost 31-0 at No. 22 LSU as a 17.5-point underdog.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 18): Lost 35-32 at No. 20 Houston as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.