Projected AP Top 25 after week 8
Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 9 exactly right.
- Beat Pittsburgh 52-23 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
Miami stays at No. 1 in our projection after a 52-23 home win over Pittsburgh as a 20.5-point favorite. At 7-0 with a 7-game win streak, the Hurricanes have given voters no reason to move them. The record is full of comfortable wins, including 41-13 at Clemson, though the 43-35 escape against Florida State the week before was closer than the line suggested. Our score-based rating has them No. 4 in FBS, so the top spot rests as much on the unbeaten record as on dominance.
- Off this week · Was No. 3
Ohio State had the week off and still climbs from No. 3 to No. 2 in our projection, the kind of move that comes when a team ahead of you loses. The Buckeyes are 6-1 on a 5-game win streak, and their last outing was a 19-15 grind at No. 5 Indiana as a 3-point favorite. Add a 31-14 win at No. 14 Iowa, and the only blemish is a 24-23 loss at No. 4 Texas in week 2. Our rating puts them No. 5 in FBS.
- Off this week · Was No. 4
Notre Dame was idle, and our projection nudges the Fighting Irish from No. 4 to No. 3 as teams around them stumbled. The result voters remember is the 28-24 loss at No. 8 BYU, where Notre Dame was a 10.5-point favorite. Before that came 6 straight wins, most of them lopsided: 58-7 over Stanford, 52-0 over Rice and 41-13 over Wisconsin. At 6-1, the Irish rate No. 2 in FBS by our score-based numbers, which suggests the poll may be underselling them.
- Off this week · Was No. 5
Georgia sat out the week and moves up from No. 5 to No. 4 in our projection, mostly because others lost. The 27-24 home loss to Auburn as a 19.5-point favorite still stings, and it is the reason the Bulldogs aren't higher. What holds them up is a 20-17 win at No. 6 Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog, plus a 41-13 win over Oklahoma. They are 6-1, and our rating places them No. 7 in FBS, close to where voters have them.
- Won 13-6 at Michigan as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
Indiana won ugly and still moves from No. 6 to No. 5. A 13-6 win at Michigan as a 7.5-point favorite won't make many highlight reels, but road wins in October count with voters. The Hoosiers are 7-1, and the lone loss was 19-15 at home to No. 4 Ohio State as a 3-point underdog, a result that hurt them less than most losses would. Our score-based rating has Indiana No. 6 in FBS, right in line with where we project it.
- Beat No. 14 Houston 21-13 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
Utah jumps from No. 10 to No. 6 in our projection after beating No. 14 Houston 21-13 at home as a 6.5-point favorite. It's the best win of the year for the Utes, and it comes with a 7-0 record and a 7-game streak. The path hasn't always been smooth, with a 27-24 win at Colorado as a 15.5-point favorite the week before, but unbeaten teams that beat ranked opponents get rewarded. Our rating is cooler, at No. 11 in FBS.
- Beat Michigan State 28-10 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
UCLA keeps winning and keeps climbing, from No. 9 to No. 7 after a 28-10 home win over Michigan State as a 16.5-point favorite. The Bruins are 7-0, and the win that anchors their case came in week 6: 17-15 at No. 13 Oregon as a 10-point underdog. Several wins have been closer than voters might like, including 17-7 over Wisconsin, but an unbeaten record with a road upset is hard to argue with. Our rating has them No. 8 in FBS, almost exactly where we project them.
- Beat Vanderbilt 34-17 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
Kentucky is the surprise of the top 10, up from No. 12 to No. 8 after a 34-17 home win over Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite. The Wildcats have won 6 straight, and the run includes 3 upsets: 31-21 at No. 9 Texas A&M as a 16.5-point underdog, 35-34 over No. 10 LSU as a 9.5-point underdog, and 21-13 at Oklahoma as a 7-point underdog. The warning sign is our rating, which ranks them only No. 25 in FBS. Voters reward results, though, and at 7-1 Kentucky has plenty.
- Beat Texas A&M 31-20 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
Alabama bounced back with a 31-20 home win over Texas A&M as a 13.5-point favorite and climbs from No. 13 to No. 9. The 2 losses keep the Crimson Tide out of the top 5: 26-10 at No. 14 Tennessee and 20-17 at home to No. 2 Georgia. The rest of the record is strong, including a 56-23 win at No. 16 Mississippi State. Our score-based rating has Alabama No. 3 in FBS, so there is a case that it is still underrated at 6-2.
- Lost 39-31 at UCF as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
BYU tumbles in our projection, from No. 2 to No. 10, after a 39-31 loss at UCF as a 7.5-point favorite. Losing on the road to an unranked team costs a lot, and the climb by the Cougars had leaned heavily on the 28-24 home upset of No. 2 Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog. Beyond that, wins over Iowa State, TCU and Arizona were solid but not loud. At 6-1 they stay in the top 10, though our rating has them only No. 19 in FBS.
- Beat No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 19
Texas jumps from No. 19 to No. 11 after beating No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27 at home. The Longhorns were 3-point favorites, but a lower-ranked team beating a higher-ranked one still counts as an upset, and voters reward wins like it. It's a recovery after back-to-back 27-24 losses to Oklahoma and Florida. Texas also owns a signature result from week 2, 24-23 over No. 1 Ohio State. At 5-2, our rating has the Longhorns No. 9 in FBS.
- Lost 34-27 at No. 19 Texas as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 7
Ole Miss slides from No. 7 to No. 12 after a 34-27 loss at No. 19 Texas, where the Rebels were 3-point underdogs. A road loss as an underdog normally costs little, but losing to a team ranked well below you still drops you. The case for Ole Miss remains real: 31-3 over No. 13 Missouri, 32-24 over No. 7 LSU, and 41-38 over No. 24 Louisville. The 52-28 loss at Florida is the ugly one. At 5-2, our rating has them No. 12, exactly where we project them.
- Won 38-17 at Auburn as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 18
LSU climbs from No. 18 to No. 13 after a 38-17 win at Auburn as a 7-point favorite. The Tigers have now won 2 in a row, following a 31-0 shutout of No. 16 Mississippi State. Both losses came on the road and by 8 points or fewer: 35-34 at Kentucky and 32-24 at No. 8 Ole Miss. That helps explain why our score-based rating puts LSU No. 1 in all of FBS, a sign it may be ranked too low at 6-2.
- Off this week · Was No. 17
Wake Forest was off this week and rises from No. 17 to No. 14 in our projection on the strength of other teams' losses. The Demon Deacons are 6-1 with a 4-game win streak, most recently 41-7 at California. Their best win is 30-27 at No. 16 Louisville as an 11.5-point underdog, and their only loss came 33-20 at home to No. 5 Miami as a 20.5-point underdog. Our rating has them No. 13 in FBS, right around where we project them.
- Lost 37-24 at Cincinnati as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
Texas Tech drops from No. 8 to No. 15 after a 37-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 10.5-point favorite, the kind of upset voters punish. Until this week the Red Raiders had won 6 straight, including 53-25 over Arizona State and 28-26 over No. 22 Houston. Our rating has Texas Tech only No. 18 in FBS. At 6-1 it stays ranked comfortably, but the loss cost it a place in the top 10.
- Won 31-10 at Washington State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
Boise State moves from No. 21 to No. 16 after a 31-10 win at Washington State as a 14.5-point favorite. That makes 6 straight wins since a 34-27 loss at No. 2 Oregon in week 1, where the Broncos covered as 24.5-point underdogs. Wins over Fresno State, Utah State and Memphis have kept them climbing as teams above them lose. Our rating is skeptical, though, putting them No. 24 in FBS.
- Off this week · Was No. 20
Florida was off and moves up from No. 20 to No. 17 in our projection. The Gators' season has been a ride: a 52-28 win over No. 4 Ole Miss, then a 45-17 loss at No. 25 Missouri and a 38-19 home loss to South Carolina, then a 27-24 win at No. 7 Texas as a 13.5-point underdog. Those 2 wins over highly ranked teams are why they're ranked at 5-2. Our rating sees them as No. 31 in FBS, so the losses still weigh heavily there.
- Lost 21-13 at No. 10 Utah as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
Houston slips from No. 14 to No. 18 after a 21-13 loss at No. 10 Utah, where the Cougars were 6.5-point underdogs. A road loss to a higher-ranked team as an underdog costs only a few spots. The week before, they beat No. 18 Oklahoma State 35-32, and they also won 35-16 at Kansas State as 2.5-point underdogs. Both losses came on the road to ranked teams, the other 28-26 at No. 13 Texas Tech. At 6-2, our rating puts them No. 17 in FBS.
- Lost 27-24 at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
Tennessee falls from No. 11 to No. 19 after a 27-24 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. It's a sharp drop for a close road loss, but it came against an unranked team only a week after the best win for the Volunteers, 26-10 over No. 6 Alabama as 7.5-point underdogs. The other loss was 20-17 at home to No. 1 Texas. At 6-2, Tennessee has a record that holds up better than its slide suggests, and our rating has it No. 14 in FBS.
- Beat California 59-20 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
SMU moves from No. 23 to No. 20 after a 59-20 home rout of California as an 18.5-point favorite. The Mustangs have won 4 in a row and are 6-1, with the only loss 41-31 at No. 23 Louisville in week 3. The schedule has been light on ranked opponents, which is why the climb has been gradual, and our rating has them only No. 36 in FBS.
- Beat Rutgers 42-14 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
Northwestern keeps stacking wins, moving from No. 24 to No. 21 after beating Rutgers 42-14 at home as a 15.5-point favorite. The Wildcats are 6-1 with 4 straight wins, including a 34-13 home win over Penn State as 3-point underdogs. Their lone loss was 29-23 at No. 5 Indiana, where they covered as 20.5-point underdogs. Our rating likes them more than voters do, at No. 15 in FBS, so there may be room to climb.
- Off this week · Was No. 22
Missouri was off and holds at No. 22 in our projection. The last game for the Tigers was a 31-3 loss at No. 9 Ole Miss as 4-point underdogs, and it still weighs on them. The high point remains a 45-17 home win over No. 8 Florida as 5.5-point underdogs, and they also beat Texas A&M 27-6. The other loss, 31-24 at No. 24 Mississippi State, came as 3.5-point underdogs. At 5-2, our rating has Missouri No. 29 in FBS, so a quiet week is about the best it could hope for.
- Beat Iowa State 39-3 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
Arizona climbs from No. 25 to No. 23 after a 39-3 home win over Iowa State as an 11.5-point favorite. That's 5 straight wins for the Wildcats, including 52-31 at West Virginia and 34-7 over Cincinnati. The only loss came in week 2, 28-17 at No. 15 BYU. At 6-1, Arizona sits near the bottom of the poll largely because it hasn't beaten a ranked team, but our rating has it No. 16 in FBS.
- Lost 13-10 at Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
Iowa takes a big hit, falling from No. 15 to No. 24 after a 13-10 loss at Minnesota as a 7.5-point favorite. Losing as a clear favorite to an unranked team is what voters punish most. The Hawkeyes still have a 20-19 win at No. 18 Michigan and a 41-24 win at Washington as 3-point underdogs, and their other loss was 31-14 at home to No. 5 Ohio State. Our rating has Iowa only No. 46 in FBS, so it is hanging on.
- Beat No. 2 BYU 39-31 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
UCF enters our projection at No. 25 on the strength of a 39-31 home win over No. 2 BYU as a 7.5-point underdog. At 4-3 the Knights are an unusual pick, and their losses are real, including 42-28 at No. 18 Oklahoma State and 27-17 at No. 20 Houston. But a win over the No. 2 team is the kind of result voters notice. Our rating has UCF No. 41 in FBS, so this spot is about the upset, not the body of work.
Dropping out
USC (was No. 16): Lost 24-7 at Wisconsin as a 1.5-point favorite.
The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.