Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas4-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia5-0–AP 2
   Beat Vanderbilt 38-14 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame5-0–AP 3
   Won 37-26 at North Carolina as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Miami5-0–AP 4
   Won 41-13 at Clemson as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State4-1–AP 5
   Won 31-14 at No. 14 Iowa as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Indiana5-0–AP 7
   Won 47-15 at Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Alabama5-0–AP 6
   Won 56-23 at No. 16 Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Ole Miss3-1▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9BYU4-0▲1AP 8
   Won 17-10 at TCU as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10LSU4-1▲1AP 10
    Beat McNeese 63-14 at home as a 53.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Texas Tech5-0▲1AP 11
    Won 29-7 at Colorado as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Utah4-0▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Oregon3-1▲2AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14Tennessee4-1▲3AP 15
    Beat Auburn 24-14 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15USC5-1▲3AP 19
    Beat Washington 25-21 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Missouri4-1▲9AP 14
    Beat No. 8 Florida 45-17 at home as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 25
17. 17Houston4-1▲3AP 22
    Beat UCF 27-17 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Oklahoma State3-1▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
19. 19SMU4-1▲2AP 24
    Beat Boston College 25-16 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Iowa4-1▼6AP 20
    Lost 31-14 at home to No. 5 Ohio State as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
21. 21Boise State4-1▲1AP 23
    Beat Utah State 37-18 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Florida4-1▼14AP 16
    Lost 45-17 at No. 25 Missouri as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
23. 23UCLA4-0–AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24Kentucky4-1–AP NR
    Won 35-34 at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
25. 25Mississippi State4-1▼9AP 17
    Lost 56-23 at home to No. 7 Alabama as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 16

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.