Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia5-0–AP 1
   Won 27-20 at Auburn as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan5-0–AP 2
   Won 45-7 at Nebraska as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas5-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 24 Kansas 40-14 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State4-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Florida State4-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Penn State5-0–AP 6
   Won 41-13 at Northwestern as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Washington5-0–AP 7
   Won 31-24 at Arizona as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8USC5-0–AP 9
   Won 48-41 at Colorado as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oregon5-0–AP 8
   Won 42-6 at Stanford as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Notre Dame5-1▲1AP 10
    Won 21-14 at No. 17 Duke as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Alabama4-1▲1AP 11
    Won 40-17 at Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Oklahoma5-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Iowa State 50-20 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oregon State4-1▲6AP 15
    Beat No. 10 Utah 21-7 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
14. 14North Carolina4-0▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Washington State4-0▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Ole Miss4-1▲4AP 16
    Beat No. 13 LSU 55-49 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
17. 17Miami4-0▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Tennessee4-1▲3AP 22
    Beat South Carolina 41-20 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Utah4-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 21-7 at No. 19 Oregon State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
20. 20LSU3-2▼7AP 23
    Lost 55-49 at No. 20 Ole Miss as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
21. 21Missouri5-0▲2AP 21
    Won 38-21 at Vanderbilt as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Maryland5-0NewAP NR
    Beat Indiana 44-17 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Kentucky5-0NewAP 20
    Beat No. 22 Florida 33-14 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24James Madison5-0NewAP NR
    Beat South Alabama 31-23 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Louisville5-0NewAP 25
    Won 13-10 at NC State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Duke (was No. 17): Lost 21-14 at home to No. 11 Notre Dame as a 5.5-point underdog.
• Florida (was No. 22): Lost 33-14 at Kentucky as a 1.5-point underdog.
• Kansas (was No. 24): Lost 40-14 at No. 3 Texas as a 16.5-point underdog.
• Fresno State (was No. 25): Beat Nevada 27-9 at home as a 24.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.