Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia3-0–AP 1
   Beat South Carolina 24-14 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan3-0–AP 2
   Beat Bowling Green 31-6 at home as a 41-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Florida State3-0–AP 4
   Won 31-29 at Boston College as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Texas3-0–AP 3
   Beat Wyoming 31-10 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5USC3-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State3-0–AP 6
   Beat Western Kentucky 63-10 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Penn State3-0–AP 7
   Won 30-13 at Illinois as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Washington3-0–AP 8
   Won 41-7 at Michigan State as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame4-0–AP 9
   Beat Central Michigan 41-17 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Alabama2-1–AP 13
    Won 17-3 at South Florida as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Utah3-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Weber State 31-7 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Oregon3-0▲1AP 10
    Beat Hawai'i 55-10 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13LSU2-1▲1AP 12
    Won 41-14 at Mississippi State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Oregon State3-0▲2AP 14
    Beat San Diego State 26-9 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Ole Miss3-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Georgia Tech 48-23 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Colorado3-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Colorado State 43-35 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Oklahoma3-0▲2AP 16
    Won 66-17 at Tulsa as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18North Carolina3-0▲2AP 17
    Beat Minnesota 31-13 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Duke3-0▲2AP 18
    Beat Northwestern 38-14 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Miami3-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Bethune-Cookman 48-7 at home as a 54-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Washington State3-0▲2AP 21
    Beat Northern Colorado 64-21 at home as a 48-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Missouri3-0NewAP NR
    Beat No. 15 Kansas State 30-27 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23UCLA3-0▲1AP 22
    Beat North Carolina Central 59-7 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Tennessee2-1▼13AP 23
    Lost 29-16 at Florida as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 11
25. 25Liberty3-0NewAP NR
    Won 55-27 at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 15): Lost 30-27 at Missouri as a 2-point favorite.
• Iowa (was No. 25): Beat Western Michigan 41-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.