Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia10-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 10 Ole Miss 52-17 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan10-0–AP 2
   Won 24-15 at No. 9 Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State10-0–AP 3
   Beat Michigan State 38-3 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State10-0–AP 4
   Beat Miami 27-20 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington10-0–AP 5
   Beat No. 13 Utah 35-28 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon9-1–AP 6
   Beat USC 36-27 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas9-1–AP 7
   Won 29-26 at TCU as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Alabama9-1–AP 8
   Won 49-21 at Kentucky as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Louisville9-1▲2AP 9
   Beat Virginia 31-24 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Oregon State8-2▲2AP 10
    Beat Stanford 62-17 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Missouri8-2▲5AP 11
    Beat No. 14 Tennessee 36-7 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
12. 12Penn State8-2▼3AP 12
    Lost 24-15 at home to No. 2 Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
13. 13Oklahoma8-2▲4AP 14
    Beat West Virginia 59-20 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Ole Miss8-2▼4AP 13
    Lost 52-17 at No. 1 Georgia as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
15. 15LSU7-3▲3AP 15
    Beat Florida 52-35 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Utah7-3▼3AP 16
    Lost 35-28 at No. 5 Washington as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
17. 17James Madison10-0▲4AP 18
    Beat UConn 44-6 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Tulane9-1▲2AP 17
    Beat Tulsa 24-22 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Notre Dame7-3▲3AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20Arizona7-3▲3AP 19
    Won 34-31 at Colorado as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Liberty10-0▲4AP 25
    Beat Old Dominion 38-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22North Carolina8-2▲2AP 22
    Beat Duke 47-45 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Tennessee7-3▼9AP 21
    Lost 36-7 at No. 16 Missouri as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24Troy8-2NewAP NR
    Won 45-14 at UL Monroe as a 23.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Toledo9-1NewAP NR
    Beat Eastern Michigan 49-23 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Oklahoma State (was No. 15): Lost 45-3 at UCF as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Kansas (was No. 19): Lost 16-13 at home to Texas Tech as a 3.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.