Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia8-0–AP 1
   Beat Florida 43-20 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan8-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State8-0–AP 3
   Won 24-10 at Wisconsin as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State8-0–AP 4
   Won 41-16 at Wake Forest as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Washington8-0–AP 5
   Won 42-33 at Stanford as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon7-1▲2AP 6
   Won 35-6 at No. 13 Utah as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Texas7-1–AP 7
   Beat BYU 35-6 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Alabama7-1▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Penn State7-1▲1AP 9
   Beat Indiana 33-24 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Ole Miss7-1▲2AP 11
    Beat Vanderbilt 33-7 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Notre Dame7-2▲3AP 12
    Beat Pittsburgh 58-7 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12LSU6-2▲3AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 15
13. 13Louisville7-1▲5AP 15
    Beat No. 20 Duke 23-0 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Missouri7-1▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Oklahoma7-1▼9AP 10
    Lost 38-33 at Kansas as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Air Force8-0▲3AP 17
    Won 30-13 at Colorado State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Tennessee6-2▲4AP 19
    Won 33-27 at Kentucky as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Oregon State6-2▼7AP 16
    Lost 27-24 at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
19. 19Utah6-2▼6AP 18
    Lost 35-6 at home to No. 8 Oregon as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
20. 20Tulane7-1▲2AP 21
    Won 30-28 at Rice as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21UCLA6-2▲2AP 20
    Beat Colorado 28-16 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Kansas6-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 6 Oklahoma 38-33 at home as a 9-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23USC7-2▲1AP 24
    Won 50-49 at California as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Liberty8-0NewAP NR
    Won 42-29 at Western Kentucky as a 4-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25James Madison8-0–AP 23
    Beat Old Dominion 30-27 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• North Carolina (was No. 17): Lost 46-42 at Georgia Tech as a 11-point favorite.
• Duke (was No. 20): Lost 23-0 at No. 18 Louisville as a 4.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.