Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia6-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 20 Kentucky 51-13 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan6-0–AP 2
   Won 52-10 at Minnesota as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State5-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Maryland 37-17 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Florida State5-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Virginia Tech 39-17 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Penn State5-0▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
6. 6Washington5-0▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Oregon5-0▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Oklahoma6-0▲4AP 5
   Beat No. 3 Texas 34-30 at a neutral site as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
9. 9USC6-0–AP 10
   Beat Arizona 43-41 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Texas5-1▼7AP 9
    Lost to No. 12 Oklahoma 34-30 at a neutral site as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
11. 11Alabama5-1–AP 11
    Won 26-20 at Texas A&M as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12North Carolina5-0▲2AP 12
    Beat Syracuse 40-7 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oregon State5-1▲2AP 15
    Won 52-40 at California as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Ole Miss5-1▲2AP 13
    Beat Arkansas 27-20 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Utah4-1▲3AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 18
16. 16Duke4-1▲3AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17Louisville6-0▲8AP 14
    Beat No. 10 Notre Dame 33-20 at home as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 25
18. 18LSU4-2▲5AP 22
    Won 49-39 at No. 21 Missouri as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 23
19. 19Notre Dame5-2▼9AP 21
    Lost 33-20 at No. 25 Louisville as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20Tennessee4-1▲2AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21Washington State4-1▼8AP 19
    Lost 25-17 at UCLA as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
22. 22Liberty5-0NewAP NR
    Beat Sam Houston 21-16 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23UCLA4-1NewAP 18
    Beat No. 13 Washington State 25-17 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24James Madison5-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked
25. 25Kansas5-1NewAP 23
    Beat UCF 51-22 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Miami (was No. 17): Lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as a 19.5-point favorite.
• Kentucky (was No. 20): Lost 51-13 at No. 1 Georgia as a 14.5-point underdog.
• Missouri (was No. 21): Lost 49-39 at home to No. 23 LSU as a 4-point underdog.
• Fresno State (was No. 24): Lost 24-19 at Wyoming as a 6-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.