Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia4-0–AP 1
   Beat UAB 49-21 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan4-0–AP 2
   Beat Rutgers 31-7 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas4-0–AP 3
   Won 38-6 at Baylor as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State4-0–AP 5
   Won 31-24 at Clemson as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State4-0▲1AP 4
   Won 17-14 at No. 9 Notre Dame as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6USC4-0▼1AP 8
   Won 42-28 at Arizona State as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
7. 7Penn State4-0–AP 6
   Beat No. 24 Iowa 31-0 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Washington4-0–AP 7
   Beat California 59-32 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oregon4-0▲1AP 9
   Beat No. 19 Colorado 42-6 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Utah4-0▲1AP 10
    Beat No. 22 UCLA 14-7 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Alabama3-1▲2AP 12
    Beat No. 15 Ole Miss 24-10 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12LSU3-1–AP 13
    Beat Arkansas 34-31 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Notre Dame4-1▼4AP 11
    Lost 17-14 at home to No. 6 Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
14. 14Oklahoma4-0▲2AP 14
    Won 20-6 at Cincinnati as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15North Carolina4-0▲2AP 15
    Won 41-24 at Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Duke4-0▲2AP 17
    Won 41-7 at UConn as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Washington State4-0▲4AP 16
    Beat No. 14 Oregon State 38-35 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 21
18. 18Miami4-0▲2AP 18
    Won 41-7 at Temple as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Tennessee3-1▲4AP 21
    Beat UTSA 45-14 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Liberty4-0NewAP NR
    Won 38-6 at Florida International as a 10-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21Louisville4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Boston College 56-28 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Oregon State3-1▼8AP 19
    Lost 38-35 at No. 21 Washington State as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 14
23. 23Missouri4-0NewAP 23
    Beat Memphis 34-27 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Ole Miss3-1▼9AP 20
    Lost 24-10 at No. 13 Alabama as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 15
25. 25Maryland4-0NewAP NR
    Won 31-9 at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Colorado (was No. 19): Lost 42-6 at No. 10 Oregon as a 21-point underdog.
• UCLA (was No. 22): Lost 14-7 at No. 11 Utah as a 5.5-point underdog.
• Iowa (was No. 24): Lost 31-0 at No. 7 Penn State as a 14.5-point underdog.
• Florida (was No. 25): Beat Charlotte 22-7 at home as a 28-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.