Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 14 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia12-0–AP 1
   Won 31-23 at Georgia Tech as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan12-0▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 2 Ohio State 30-24 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Washington12-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Washington State 24-21 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Oregon11-1▲2AP 5
   Beat No. 15 Oregon State 31-7 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Florida State12-0–AP 4
   Won 24-15 at Florida as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas11-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Texas Tech 57-7 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Ohio State11-1▼5AP 6
   Lost 30-24 at No. 3 Michigan as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 2
8. 8Alabama11-1–AP 8
   Won 27-24 at Auburn as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Missouri10-2▲1AP 9
   Won 48-14 at Arkansas as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Penn State10-2▲1AP 10
    Beat Michigan State 42-0 at a neutral site as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Ole Miss10-2▲1AP 11
    Won 17-7 at Mississippi State as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Oklahoma10-2▲1AP 12
    Beat TCU 69-45 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13LSU9-3▲1AP 13
    Beat Texas A&M 42-30 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Arizona9-3▲2AP 14
    Won 59-23 at Arizona State as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Notre Dame9-3▲2AP 16
    Won 56-23 at Stanford as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Tulane11-1▲2AP 17
    Beat UTSA 29-16 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Iowa10-2▲3AP 18
    Won 13-10 at Nebraska as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 20
18. 18Louisville10-2▼9AP 15
    Lost 38-31 at home to Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
19. 19Oklahoma State9-3▲2AP 19
    Beat BYU 40-34 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Liberty12-0▲2AP 20
    Won 42-28 at UTEP as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Oregon State8-4▼6AP 21
    Lost 31-7 at No. 6 Oregon as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
22. 22Toledo11-1▲1AP 23
    Won 32-17 at Central Michigan as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23James Madison11-1▲1AP 24
    Won 56-14 at Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Tennessee8-4▲1AP NR
    Beat Vanderbilt 48-24 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25SMU10-2NewAP 25
    Beat Navy 59-14 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 19): Lost 42-35 at home to Iowa State as a 9.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.