Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia7-0–AP 1
   Won 37-20 at Vanderbilt as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan7-0–AP 2
   Beat Indiana 52-7 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State6-0–AP 3
   Won 41-7 at Purdue as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Florida State6-0–AP 4
   Beat Syracuse 41-3 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma6-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Washington6-0▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 8 Oregon 36-33 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Penn State6-0▼1AP 7
   Beat Massachusetts 63-0 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
8. 8Texas5-1▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Alabama6-1▲2AP 11
   Beat Arkansas 24-21 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10North Carolina6-0▲2AP 10
    Beat No. 25 Miami 41-31 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Oregon State6-1▲4AP 12
    Beat No. 18 UCLA 36-24 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Ole Miss5-1▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Oregon5-1▼5AP 9
    Lost 36-33 at No. 7 Washington as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 8
14. 14Utah5-1▲2AP 14
    Beat California 34-14 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Notre Dame6-2▲6AP 15
    Beat No. 10 USC 48-20 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
16. 16Duke5-1▲1AP 16
    Beat NC State 24-3 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Tennessee5-1▲3AP 17
    Beat Texas A&M 20-13 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18LSU5-2▲4AP 19
    Beat Auburn 48-18 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19USC6-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 48-20 at No. 21 Notre Dame as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
20. 20Liberty6-0NewAP NR
    Won 31-13 at Jacksonville State as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21James Madison6-0NewAP NR
    Beat Georgia Southern 41-13 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22Missouri6-1NewAP 20
    Won 38-21 at No. 24 Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Louisville6-1▼9AP 21
    Lost 38-21 at Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24UCLA4-2▼6AP 25
    Lost 36-24 at No. 15 Oregon State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
25. 25Kansas State4-2NewAP NR
    Won 38-21 at Texas Tech as a 1.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Washington State (was No. 19): Lost 44-6 at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Kansas (was No. 23): Lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite.
• Kentucky (was No. 24): Lost 38-21 at home to Missouri as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Miami (was No. 25): Lost 41-31 at No. 12 North Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.