Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia1-0–AP 1
   Beat UT Martin 48-7 at home as a 51-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan1-0–AP 2
   Beat East Carolina 30-3 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State1-0–AP 5
   Won 23-3 at Indiana as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama1-0–AP 3
   Beat Middle Tennessee 56-7 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5USC2-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Nevada 66-14 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Florida State1-0▲2AP 4
   Beat No. 5 LSU 45-24 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
7. 7Penn State1-0–AP 7
   Beat West Virginia 38-15 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Washington1-0▲2AP 8
   Beat Boise State 56-19 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Texas1-0▲2AP 11
   Beat Rice 37-10 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Notre Dame2-0▲3AP 10
    Beat Tennessee State 56-3 at home as a 48-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Tennessee1-0▲1AP 9
    Beat Virginia 49-13 at a neutral site as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12LSU0-1▼7AP 14
    Lost to No. 8 Florida State 45-24 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
13. 13Utah1-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Florida 24-11 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Oregon1-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Portland State 81-7 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Kansas State1-0▲1AP 15
    Beat Southeast Missouri State 45-0 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Oregon State1-0▲2AP 16
    Won 42-17 at San José State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Wisconsin1-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Buffalo 38-17 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Oklahoma1-0▲2AP 18
    Beat Arkansas State 73-0 at home as a 36-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19North Carolina1-0▲2AP 17
    Beat South Carolina 31-17 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 21
20. 20Ole Miss1-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Mercer 73-7 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Duke1-0NewAP 21
    Beat No. 9 Clemson 28-7 at home as a 12.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Texas A&M1-0▲1AP 23
    Beat New Mexico 52-10 at home as a 38-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Clemson0-1▼14AP 25
    Lost 28-7 at Duke as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
24. 24Tulane1-0–AP 24
    Beat South Alabama 37-17 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
25. 25Missouri1-0NewAP NR
    Beat South Dakota 35-10 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• TCU (was No. 17): Lost 45-42 at home to Colorado as a 20-point favorite.
• Iowa (was No. 25): Beat Utah State 24-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.