Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State6-0–AP 1
   Won 34-16 at No. 17 Illinois as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Miami5-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Ole Miss6-0▲1AP 5
   Beat Washington State 24-21 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Texas A&M6-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Florida 34-17 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Indiana6-0▲2AP 3
   Won 30-20 at No. 3 Oregon as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
6. 6Alabama5-1▲2AP 6
   Won 27-24 at No. 14 Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Texas Tech6-0▲2AP 7
   Beat Kansas 42-17 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Oregon5-1▼5AP 8
   Lost 30-20 at home to No. 7 Indiana as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
9. 9Georgia5-1▲1AP 9
   Won 20-10 at Auburn as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10LSU5-1▲1AP 10
    Beat South Carolina 20-10 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Tennessee5-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Arkansas 34-31 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Georgia Tech6-0▲1AP 12
    Beat Virginia Tech 35-20 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Notre Dame4-2▲3AP 13
    Beat NC State 36-7 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14BYU6-0▲4AP 15
    Won 33-27 at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
15. 15Oklahoma5-1▼9AP 14
    Lost to Texas 23-6 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 6
16. 16Virginia5-1▲3AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17Missouri5-1▼3AP 16
    Lost 27-24 at home to No. 8 Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
18. 18Vanderbilt5-1▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19USC5-1NewAP 20
    Beat No. 15 Michigan 31-13 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
20. 20Texas4-2NewAP 21
    Beat No. 6 Oklahoma 23-6 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
21. 21Utah5-1NewAP 23
    Beat No. 21 Arizona State 42-10 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22South Florida5-1▲2AP 19
    Won 63-36 at North Texas as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
23. 23Illinois5-2▼6AP NR
    Lost 34-16 at home to No. 1 Ohio State as a 15.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
24. 24Memphis6-0▼1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 23
25. 25James Madison5-1NewAP NR
    Beat Louisiana 24-14 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Michigan (was No. 15): Lost 31-13 at USC as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Arizona State (was No. 21): Lost 42-10 at Utah as a 8.5-point underdog.
• Iowa State (was No. 22): Lost 24-17 at Colorado as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Florida State (was No. 25): Lost 34-31 at home to Pittsburgh as a 11.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.