Projected AP Top 25 after week 16

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll comes out Sunday afternoon; we’ll show it next to ours.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State12-1▲2
   Off this week · Was No. 3
2. 2Indiana13-0▼1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
3. 3Georgia12-1▼1
   Off this week · Was No. 2
4. 4Oregon11-1▲1
   Off this week · Was No. 5
5. 5Texas Tech12-1▼1
   Off this week · Was No. 4
6. 6Ole Miss11-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas A&M11-1–
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Oklahoma10-2–
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame10-2–
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Alabama10-3▲1
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11BYU11-2▲1
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Miami10-2▼2
    Off this week · Was No. 10
13. 13Vanderbilt10-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 13
14. 14Texas9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15Utah10-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Virginia10-3▲4
    Off this week · Was No. 20
17. 17USC9-3▼1
    Off this week · Was No. 16
18. 18Michigan9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 18
19. 19James Madison12-1–
    Off this week · Was No. 19
20. 20North Texas11-2▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 23
21. 21Tulane11-2▼4
    Off this week · Was No. 17
22. 22Arizona9-3▼1
    Off this week · Was No. 21
23. 23Navy10-2▼1
    Beat Army 17-16 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
24. 24Georgia Tech9-3–
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25Missouri8-4–
    Off this week · Was No. 25

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.