Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State2-0–AP 1
   Beat Grambling 70-0 at home as a 51.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Penn State2-0–AP 2
   Beat Florida International 34-0 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3LSU2-0–AP 3
   Beat Louisiana Tech 23-7 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia2-0–AP 6
   Beat Austin Peay 28-6 at home as a 46.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Miami2-0–AP 5
   Beat Bethune-Cookman 45-3 at home as a 54.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon2-0–AP 4
   Beat Oklahoma State 69-3 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas1-1–AP 7
   Beat San José State 38-7 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Clemson1-1–AP 12
   Beat Troy 27-16 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame0-1–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10South Carolina2-0–AP 11
    Beat South Carolina State 38-10 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Illinois2-0–AP 9
    Won 45-19 at Duke as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Florida State2-0▲2AP 10
    Beat East Texas A&M 77-3 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oklahoma2-0▲5AP 13
    Beat No. 15 Michigan 24-13 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Iowa State3-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Iowa 16-13 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Texas A&M2-0▲4AP 16
    Beat Utah State 44-22 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Ole Miss2-0▲4AP 17
    Won 30-23 at Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Alabama1-1▲4AP 19
    Beat UL Monroe 73-0 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Tennessee2-0▲4AP 15
    Beat East Tennessee State 72-17 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19Indiana2-0▲4AP 22
    Beat Kennesaw State 56-9 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Texas Tech2-0▲4AP 21
    Beat Kent State 62-14 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Arizona State1-1▼9AP NR
    Lost 24-20 at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
22. 22Florida1-1▼9AP NR
    Lost 18-16 at home to South Florida as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
23. 23Utah2-0▲2AP 20
    Beat Cal Poly 63-9 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Michigan1-1▼9AP 23
    Lost 24-13 at No. 18 Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
25. 25South Florida2-0NewAP 18
    Won 18-16 at No. 13 Florida as a 18.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• SMU (was No. 17): Lost 48-45 at home to Baylor as a 2.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.