Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State8-0–AP 1
   Beat Penn State 38-14 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana9-0–AP 2
   Won 55-10 at Maryland as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas A&M8-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama7-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia7-1–AP 5
   Beat Florida 24-20 at a neutral site as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon7-1–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Ole Miss8-1–AP 7
   Beat South Carolina 30-14 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8BYU8-0▲3AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 11
9. 9Notre Dame6-2▲3AP 10
   Won 25-10 at Boston College as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Texas Tech8-1▲3AP 9
    Won 43-20 at Kansas State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Virginia8-1▲4AP 12
    Won 31-21 at California as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Oklahoma7-2▲6AP 11
    Won 33-27 at No. 14 Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
13. 13Louisville7-1▲3AP 14
    Won 28-16 at Virginia Tech as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Texas7-2▲6AP 13
    Beat No. 9 Vanderbilt 34-31 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
15. 15Vanderbilt7-2▼6AP 15
    Lost 34-31 at No. 20 Texas as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
16. 16Missouri6-2▲3AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17Georgia Tech8-1▼9AP 16
    Lost 48-36 at NC State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
18. 18Utah7-2▲6AP 17
    Beat No. 17 Cincinnati 45-14 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
19. 19Miami6-2▼9AP 18
    Lost 26-20 at SMU as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20Michigan7-2▲1AP 21
    Beat Purdue 21-16 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Tennessee6-3▼7AP 23
    Lost 33-27 at home to No. 18 Oklahoma as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
22. 22USC6-2▲1AP 20
    Won 21-17 at Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Memphis8-1▲2AP 22
    Won 38-14 at Rice as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24James Madison7-1NewAP NR
    Won 52-20 at Texas State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25SMU6-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 10 Miami 26-20 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Cincinnati (was No. 17): Lost 45-14 at No. 24 Utah as a 9.5-point underdog.
• Houston (was No. 22): Lost 45-35 at home to West Virginia as a 12.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.