Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 25 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.7 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State1-0▲2AP 1
   Beat No. 1 Texas 14-7 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
2. 2Penn State1-0–AP 2
   Beat Nevada 46-11 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0▲2AP 4
   Beat Marshall 45-7 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
4. 4Texas0-1▼3AP 7
   Lost 14-7 at No. 3 Ohio State as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 1
5. 5LSU1-0▲4AP 3
   Won 17-10 at No. 4 Clemson as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
6. 6Oregon1-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Montana State 59-13 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Miami1-0▲3AP 5
   Beat No. 6 Notre Dame 27-24 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
8. 8Clemson0-1▼4AP 8
   Lost 17-10 at home to No. 9 LSU as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
9. 9Arizona State1-0▲2AP 12
   Beat Northern Arizona 38-19 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Illinois1-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Western Illinois 52-3 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Notre Dame0-1▼5AP 9
    Lost 27-24 at No. 10 Miami as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
12. 12South Carolina1-0▲1AP 10
    Beat Virginia Tech 24-11 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Michigan1-0▲1AP 15
    Beat New Mexico 34-17 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Florida1-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Long Island University 55-0 at home as a 46.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15SMU1-0▲1AP 17
    Beat East Texas A&M 42-13 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Oklahoma1-0▲2AP 18
    Beat Illinois State 35-3 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Iowa State2-0▲5AP 16
    Beat South Dakota 55-7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18Texas A&M1-0▲1AP 19
    Beat UTSA 42-24 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Indiana1-0▲1AP 23
    Beat Old Dominion 27-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Ole Miss1-0▲1AP 20
    Beat Georgia State 63-7 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Alabama0-1▼13AP 21
    Lost 31-17 at Florida State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
22. 22Texas Tech1-0▲1AP 24
    Beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 at home as a 54.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Florida State1-0NewAP 14
    Beat No. 8 Alabama 31-17 at home as a 13.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Tennessee1-0–AP 22
    Beat Syracuse 45-26 at a neutral site as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
25. 25Utah1-0NewAP 25
    Won 43-10 at UCLA as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 17): Beat North Dakota 38-35 at home as a 27.5-point favorite.
• Boise State (was No. 25): Lost 34-7 at South Florida as a 5.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.