Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.3 places on average, with 17 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State10-0–AP 1
   Beat UCLA 48-10 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana11-0–AP 2
   Beat Wisconsin 31-7 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas A&M10-0–AP 3
   Beat South Carolina 31-30 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia9-1▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 10 Texas 35-10 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ole Miss10-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Florida 34-24 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oregon9-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Minnesota 42-13 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Texas Tech10-1▲1AP 6
   Beat UCF 48-9 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Oklahoma8-2▲3AP 8
   Won 23-21 at No. 4 Alabama as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
9. 9Notre Dame8-2–AP 9
   Won 37-15 at No. 23 Pittsburgh as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Alabama8-2▼6AP 10
    Lost 23-21 at home to No. 11 Oklahoma as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
11. 11BYU9-1▲1AP 11
    Beat TCU 44-13 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Vanderbilt8-2▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
13. 13Georgia Tech9-1▲1AP 15
    Won 36-34 at Boston College as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Utah8-2▲1AP 13
    Won 55-28 at Baylor as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Miami8-2▲1AP 14
    Beat NC State 41-7 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16USC8-2▲1AP 16
    Beat Iowa 26-21 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Texas7-3▼7AP 17
    Lost 35-10 at No. 5 Georgia as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
18. 18Michigan8-2–AP 18
    Beat Northwestern 24-22 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Virginia9-2▲1AP 19
    Won 34-17 at Duke as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
20. 20Tennessee7-3▲1AP 20
    Beat New Mexico State 42-9 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21James Madison9-1▲3AP 21
    Beat App State 58-10 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22North Texas9-1NewAP 22
    Won 53-24 at UAB as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Louisville7-3▼4AP NR
    Lost 20-19 at home to Clemson as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
24. 24Washington7-3NewAP NR
    Beat Purdue 49-13 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Arizona7-3NewAP NR
    Won 30-24 at No. 22 Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Cincinnati (was No. 22): Lost 30-24 at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 23): Lost 37-15 at home to No. 9 Notre Dame as a 12.5-point underdog.
• South Florida (was No. 25): Lost 41-38 at Navy as a 8.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.