Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State7-0–AP 1
   Won 34-0 at Wisconsin as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana7-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Michigan State 38-13 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Texas A&M7-0▲1AP 3
   Won 45-42 at Arkansas as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Alabama6-1▲2AP 4
   Beat No. 11 Tennessee 37-20 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Georgia6-1▲4AP 5
   Beat No. 5 Ole Miss 43-35 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
6. 6Oregon6-1▲2AP 6
   Won 56-10 at Rutgers as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Ole Miss6-1▼2AP 8
   Lost 43-35 at No. 9 Georgia as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
8. 8Georgia Tech7-0▲4AP 7
   Won 27-18 at Duke as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
9. 9Notre Dame5-2▲4AP 12
   Beat No. 20 USC 34-24 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
10. 10Miami5-1▼8AP 9
    Lost 24-21 at home to Louisville as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
11. 11Oklahoma6-1▲3AP 13
    Won 26-7 at South Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Vanderbilt6-1▲5AP 10
    Beat No. 10 LSU 31-24 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
13. 13BYU7-0▲2AP 11
    Beat No. 23 Utah 24-21 at home as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
14. 14Missouri6-1▲2AP 15
    Won 23-17 at Auburn as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Tennessee5-2▼4AP 17
    Lost 37-20 at No. 6 Alabama as a 8.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
16. 16Texas Tech6-1▼9AP 14
    Lost 26-22 at Arizona State as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
17. 17South Florida6-1▲2AP 18
    Beat Florida Atlantic 48-13 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Virginia6-1–AP 16
    Beat Washington State 22-20 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19LSU5-2▼9AP 20
    Lost 31-24 at No. 17 Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
20. 20Louisville5-1NewAP 19
    Won 24-21 at No. 2 Miami as a 10.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Texas5-2–AP 22
    Won 16-13 at Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22Cincinnati6-1▲2AP 21
    Won 49-17 at Oklahoma State as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23James Madison6-1NewAP NR
    Beat Old Dominion 63-27 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Arizona State5-2NewAP 24
    Beat No. 7 Texas Tech 26-22 at home as a 8.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25North Texas6-1NewAP NR
    Beat UTSA 55-17 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• USC (was No. 20): Lost 34-24 at No. 13 Notre Dame as a 10.5-point underdog.
• Memphis (was No. 22): Lost 31-24 at UAB as a 23.5-point favorite.
• Utah (was No. 23): Lost 24-21 at No. 15 BYU as a 5.5-point favorite.
• Nebraska (was No. 25): Lost 24-6 at Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.