Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State3-0–AP 1
   Beat Ohio 37-9 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Penn State3-0–AP 2
   Beat Villanova 52-6 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3LSU3-0–AP 3
   Beat Florida 20-10 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Oregon3-0–AP 6
   Won 34-14 at Northwestern as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Miami3-0–AP 4
   Beat No. 18 South Florida 49-12 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Georgia3-0–AP 5
   Won 44-41 at No. 15 Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas2-1–AP 8
   Beat UTEP 27-10 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Illinois3-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Western Michigan 38-0 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida State2-0▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Oklahoma3-0▲3AP 11
    Won 42-3 at Temple as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Texas A&M3-0▲5AP 10
    Won 41-40 at No. 8 Notre Dame as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
12. 12Iowa State4-0▲2AP 12
    Won 24-16 at Arkansas State as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Notre Dame0-2▼5AP 24
    Lost 41-40 at home to No. 16 Texas A&M as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
14. 14Ole Miss3-0▲3AP 13
    Beat Arkansas 41-35 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Alabama2-1▲4AP 14
    Beat Wisconsin 38-14 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Utah3-0▲4AP 16
    Won 31-6 at Wyoming as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Texas Tech3-0▲4AP 17
    Beat Oregon State 45-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Vanderbilt3-0NewAP 20
    Won 31-7 at No. 11 South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19Tennessee2-1▼4AP 15
    Lost 44-41 at home to No. 6 Georgia as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
20. 20Indiana3-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Indiana State 73-0 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Michigan2-1▲2AP 21
    Beat Central Michigan 63-3 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Clemson1-2▼10AP NR
    Lost 24-21 at Georgia Tech as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
23. 23Auburn3-0▲1AP 22
    Beat South Alabama 31-15 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
24. 24Missouri3-0▲1AP 23
    Beat Louisiana 52-10 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Georgia Tech3-0NewAP 18
    Beat No. 12 Clemson 24-21 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• South Carolina (was No. 11): Lost 31-7 at home to Vanderbilt as a 2.5-point favorite.
• South Florida (was No. 18): Lost 49-12 at No. 5 Miami as a 17.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.