Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State9-0–AP 1
   Won 34-10 at Purdue as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana10-0–AP 2
   Won 27-24 at Penn State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas A&M9-0–AP 3
   Won 38-17 at No. 19 Missouri as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama8-1–AP 4
   Beat LSU 20-9 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia8-1–AP 5
   Won 41-21 at Mississippi State as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon8-1–AP 7
   Won 18-16 at Iowa as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Ole Miss9-1–AP 6
   Beat The Citadel 49-0 at home as a 52.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Texas Tech9-1▲1AP 8
   Beat No. 8 BYU 29-7 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Notre Dame7-2▲1AP 9
   Beat Navy 49-10 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Oklahoma7-2▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11Texas7-2▲2AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12Vanderbilt8-2▲3AP 13
    Beat Auburn 45-38 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Georgia Tech8-1▲3AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
14. 14BYU8-1▼6AP 12
    Lost 29-7 at No. 9 Texas Tech as a 13.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
15. 15Miami7-2▲3AP 16
    Beat Syracuse 38-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Utah7-2▲1AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 17
17. 17USC7-2▲3AP 17
    Beat Northwestern 38-17 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Michigan7-2▲3AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 21
19. 19Virginia8-2▼7AP 20
    Lost 16-9 at home to Wake Forest as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
20. 20Tennessee6-3▲3AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
21. 21James Madison8-1NewAP 24
    Won 35-23 at Marshall as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22South Florida7-2NewAP 25
    Beat UTSA 55-23 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Louisville7-2▼9AP 19
    Lost 29-26 at home to California as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24Missouri6-3▼5AP NR
    Lost 38-17 at home to No. 3 Texas A&M as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
25. 25North Texas8-1NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Memphis (was No. 22): Lost 38-32 at home to Tulane as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Washington (was No. 24): Lost 13-10 at Wisconsin as a 10.5-point favorite.
• Cincinnati (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.