Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State5-0–AP 1
   Beat Minnesota 42-3 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oregon5-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Miami5-0–AP 2
   Won 28-22 at No. 18 Florida State as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ole Miss5-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Oklahoma5-0–AP 6
   Beat Kent State 44-0 at home as a 46.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Texas A&M5-0–AP 5
   Beat Mississippi State 31-9 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Indiana5-0▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Alabama4-1▲2AP 8
   Beat No. 16 Vanderbilt 30-14 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Texas Tech5-0▲2AP 9
   Won 35-11 at Houston as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Georgia4-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Kentucky 35-14 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11LSU4-1▲2AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12Tennessee4-1▲3AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 15
13. 13Georgia Tech5-0▲4AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 17
14. 14Penn State3-2▼7AP NR
    Lost 42-37 at UCLA as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15Michigan4-1▲5AP 15
    Beat Wisconsin 24-10 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
16. 16Missouri5-0▲3AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17Texas3-2▼8AP NR
    Lost 29-21 at Florida as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
18. 18Notre Dame3-2▲3AP 16
    Beat Boise State 28-7 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Illinois5-1▲3AP 17
    Won 43-27 at Purdue as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20BYU5-0▲3AP 18
    Beat West Virginia 38-24 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Florida State3-2▼3AP 25
    Lost 28-22 at home to No. 3 Miami as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
22. 22Virginia5-1▲2AP 19
    Won 30-27 at Louisville as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
23. 23Memphis6-0NewAP 23
    Beat Tulsa 45-7 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Vanderbilt5-1▼8AP 20
    Lost 30-14 at No. 10 Alabama as a 13.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
25. 25South Florida4-1NewAP 24
    Beat Charlotte 54-26 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Iowa State (was No. 14): Lost 38-30 at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog.
• Arizona State (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.